Based on daily meteorological data under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios (2021-2050) and baseline climatic conditions (1961-1990) extracted from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1-1 (BCC_CSM1), global climate patterns for the middle and lower Yangtze River and potential climatic productivity of winter wheat and rice were estimated using the attenuation method. The spatial and temporal characteristics of potential climatic productivity over the next 30 years were estimated using the Theil-Sen's slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The sequential driving factors of the dynamics of potential climatic productivity were determined. The results showed that the estimated potential climatic productivity of winter wheat was 10000-12000 kg/hm², whereas that of rice was 8000-10500 kg/hm². The potential productivity of wheat tended to increase from the central to the southern areas, whereas the potential productivity of rice exhibited the opposite tendency, decreasing from north to south during the baseline period. The climatic production potential of winter wheat and rice increased significantly, with greater annual increases and less fluctuations for rice than for winter wheat under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, the potential climatic productivity of rice and winter wheat exhibited strong regional characteristics, increasing by 3500-5000 kg/hm² and 5000-6050 kg/hm², respectively, from those under the baseline scenario. With high values in the Two-lake plains and Jiangxi Province, and significantly increasing tendencies for Nanchang of ≥ 80 kg hm^-2 a^-1, the potential climatic productivity of winter wheat slightly decreased from south to north. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the overall potential climatic productivity of rice and winter wheat exhibited significantly increasing amplitudes of 4000-6000 kg/hm² and 11000 kg/hm², respectively, from those under the baseline scenario. The potential climatic productivity of winter wheat tended to decrease gradually from east to west in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The highest values were predicted in the Yangtze River delta, Nan yang basin, and Two-lake plains, and an increment of over 80 kg/hm² was predicted in the area surrounding Mount Lu (P < 0.05). Potential climatic productivity was affected by both agricultural meteorological elements and geographical location. The potential climatic productivity of crops in the plains was greater than that in other areas at the same latitude. During the growth period, accumulated temperature was the most important factor affecting plant growth, followed by solar radiation. Accordingly, sufficient and harmonious climatic resources are thought to be the essential conditions for obtaining high potential climatic productivity.