三江源区干湿变化特征及其影响
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国家自然科学基金项目(51459003,51541907);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201501028);国家电网公司科技项目(52283014000T)


Characteristics of wetness/dryness variation and their influences in the Three-River Headwaters region
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    摘要:

    受全球气候变化影响,过去的几十年里,位于青藏高原东部的三江源区气象、水文特征发生了显著变化。干湿状况反映了区域水分和气候特征,研究气候变暖背景下的干湿变化特征,对揭示区域环境对气候变化的响应以及水文-生态演变问题有重要价值。利用近58 a的水文气象数据,采用霍尔德里奇(Holdridge)潜在蒸散率(Potential Evapotranspiration Rate,PER)代表干燥度,用累计距平、Pettitt突变点检测及逆距离加权法研究基于PER的三江源区干湿变化特征和分布,探讨气候变化背景下各气象要素变化对干湿变化带来的可能影响。结果表明:(1)时间序列上,三江源区整体PER值表现出上升趋势(P < 0.05),且在1997年发生突变(P < 0.1),干旱化有增加趋势;(2)空间分布上,PER呈现自东南向西北递增的变化格局,大部分站点的PER增加趋势显著;(3)通过相关性分析,PER与降水及相对湿度呈显著地负相关,与气温和日照显著正相关;气温是三江源暖干化的主要因素。

    Abstract:

    During the past few decades, significant climatic and hydrologic changes have occurred across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to global climate change. The characteristics of wetness and dryness can reflect changes in moisture and climate, and studying these from the perspective of climate change are important for revealing the response of the regional environment to climate change and to the problems of ecohydrological evolution. Wetness/dryness variations and spatiotemporal characteristics of the potential evapotranspiration rate (PER) in the Three-River Headwaters region (TRH) were analyzed using the Holdridge life zone model based on daily hydrological and meteorological data for the period 1957-2014. The Pettitt test, accumulated anomaly, and linear trend were used to detect the change point and long-term variation trend of PER and other factors during the period, respectively. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was used to analyze the spatial distribution and change characteristics of PER, and a regression analysis was used to estimate the contribution rates of the meteorological factors to the change in PER. We then discussed the variations in meteorological elements that influenced wetness and dryness from the perspective of climate change. The results of these analyses are as follows:(1) Temporally, the PER of the TRH region significantly increased (P < 0.05), and the change point was found to occur in 1997 (P < 0.1). The PER exhibited a relatively slow decline during 1957-1997 and then rose in the 1970s-1980s. Finally, a drying trend intensified after 1998. (2) Spatially, the mean annual PER decreased southeast-to-northwest, and the annual PER recorded at most stations increased, while the growth rates in the north and southwest were relatively slow. (3) The PER were correlated positively with precipitation and relative humidity, correlated negatively with air temperature and sunlight. Among the influences mentioned above, temperature was the main natural factor that influences the wetness/dryness changes. According to the results of an attribution analysis, PER was primarily influenced by air temperature and wind speed, which had contribution rates of 48% and 42%, respectively, but the contribution of wind speed was not significant. Thus, it was concluded that rising temperature was the main factor related to warming and drying in the TRH region during 1957-2014. This study suggests that the Holdridge life zone model can be utilized to evaluate the characteristics of wetness and dryness in the TRH region. An analysis of warming and drying impacts on the hydrological and ecological environment showed that ecological problems caused by drying, such as soil water-thermal characteristics and hydrologic regime changes, vegetation degradation, wetland shrinkage and loss of biodiversity amongst others, are intensified. To slow down the effects of drought, a series of protection measures should be carried out, for instance, reducing human intervention, increasing pastures, assigning importance to the protection of biodiversity, modifying the weather in suitable areas, and filling reservoirs to protect water sources.

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白晓兰,魏加华,解宏伟.三江源区干湿变化特征及其影响.生态学报,2017,37(24):8397~8410

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