浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别方法局限与展望
作者:
作者单位:

内蒙古大学,内蒙古大学,内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(51469018,61461034);水利部公益性行业科研专项(20150104);内蒙古科技厅科技引导项目(20140707);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2014MS0403);内蒙古科技厅应用研发项目(20130428)


Forewarned is forearmed: limitations and prospects of early warning indicators of regime shifts in shallow lakes
Author:
Affiliation:

Inner Mongolia University,Inner Mongolia University,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    浅水湖泊水体底泥交换强烈,极易受人类活动干扰,超过一定阈值即可能发生灾难性的稳态转换,对其有效识别有助于湖泊富营养化的及时防控与修复。浅水湖泊稳态转换可通过系统关键变量(叶绿素、溶解氧、浮游动物、鱼类等)的时间序列(判别不同稳态)、预警信号及阈值等进行识别,其中预警识别可为湖泊生态系统稳态转换提供预判信息,有利于早预警早行动。目前,浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别因子(方差及自相关性等)主要用于"临界慢化"现象,但在强大外力作用、强烈随机扰动及极端事件下,这些"临界慢化"因子则可能出现误用或错用。基于浅水湖泊基本特征,针对稳态转换的不同驱动机制,探讨"临界慢化"因子的适用性与局限性,并展望其未来发展方向,旨在为湖泊生态系统稳态转换预警识别提供科学参考。

    Abstract:

    In shallow lake ecosystems, the exchange rate between water and sediment is high and can be easily disturbed by anthropogenic pressures. Additionally, catastrophic shifts occur when a threshold is reached; however, effective methods for detecting regime shifts can contribute to the timely control and restoration of eutrophication. Regime shifts of key variables, including chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, and biomass of zooplankton and fishes, may be detected either through time series analysis, early warning signals provided by the abrupt changes of indicators, or identification of thresholds of explanatory variables, in which early warning signals can provide the most useful forecasting information. Thus far, the most widely used early warning indicators, such as autocorrelation and variance, are usually applied to lake ecosystems subject to the phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD). However, under conditions of high stochasticity, strong external perturbation, and extreme events, these measures may underperform or subject to misinterpretation. Thus, in terms of driving mechanisms, the applicability and limitations of CSD indicators are herein discussed, as well as their prospects. The aim of this study is to synthesize what is currently known about the early warning detection of regime shifts in shallow lake ecosystems.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

于瑞宏,张笑欣,刘廷玺,郝艳玲.浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别方法局限与展望.生态学报,2017,37(11):3619~3627

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数: