Abstract:The effects of climate change on biodiversity are at the forefront of contemporary scientific research, especially regarding rare and endangered species. As an old, highly specialized and extremely rare species, the effect of global climate change on the giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca) has received much attention. Due to climate change, giant panda habitats are generally becoming warmer and drier, reducing the total suitable area thereby giant pandas are migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes. Climate change not only directly affect species distribution, but also indirectly alters the size and distribution of herbivore populations by influencing the growth of staple food plants. Bamboo comprises > 99% of the giant panda's diet. This strong dependence couples the distribution of the giant panda with that of bamboo growth. Based on current locality and distributional data of giant pandas and bamboo species, respectively, from field surveys, we predicted distributional shifts of bamboo and giant panda habitats for the years 2050 and 2070 using a Maxent model with topography factors (altitude, slope and aspect), climate change data, river, road, resident community and land cover. We obtained current and future climate projections (for the years 2050 and 2070) from the WorldClim database at 30' resolution. The model was constrained by the conditions outlined in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 of the IPCC AR5. We assessed the accuracy of predictions of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), establishing the acceptable predictions of Maxent. The results show that the climatically suitable areas of bamboo and habitat for giant pandas might decrease by 4.7% and 37.2% in 2070, respectively. The northern and lower elevation limits of current suitable habitat for giant pandas would decrease, whereas suitable habitat would primarily expand to higher elevations. Lower elevations of climatically suitable areas of bamboo would also decrease; however the distribution of bamboo would primarily expand to higher elevations. Therefore the area of giant panda habitat will decrease by 27.2% and giant pandas would move to higher altitudes. Although bamboo will spread to higher elevations, and the total proportion of bamboo distribution will decrease by 8.3% in 2070, there will be sufficient food resources for nearly all giant pandas in this region. This suggests that climate change has limited impacts on giant pandas in the Qionglai Mountains. The southern area of the Qionglai Mountains and low-altitude regions are more sensitive to climate change, which may require additional management, research, and conservation in the future. The main habitats of giant panda (Wenchuan, Baoxing, Lushan, Dayi, Chongzhou and Tianquan counties)will also required additional focus in future studies.