Abstract:Understanding the evolution and mechanisms of climate-induced potential productivity in the climate change sensitive regions of northern Da Hinggan Mountain are fundamental for maintaining the ecosystem balance of northeastern China. The present study employed a meteorological data series from 1707 to 2014 by using standard tree-ring chronology data collection methods and observations from 13 weather stations in northern Da Hinggan Mountain region. Using a Miami model and wavelet analysis, we analyzed the evolution of climate-induced potential productivity and its response to climate change. Results show that four types of climate-induced potential productivity (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and standard climate-induced potential productivity (W)) have increased significantly(P ≤ 0.001) since 1707. W has increased at a rate of 1.79 kg hm-2 a-1 in this region since 1707. During the 20th century, the change rate of W caused by climate change peaked at 10.14 kg hm-2 a-1. During the 19th century, the change rate of W caused by climate change reached a minimum of 0.50 kg hm-2 a-1. These values of W were in the mid-range for the 18th (0.66 kg hm-2 a-1) and the 21st (4.79 kg hm-2 a-1)) centuries. The value of W for the analyzed centuries was ranked as the 21st > 20th > 18th > 19th century. The ratio of temperature potential productivity (WT) to precipitation potential productivity (WR) peaked in the 21st century; this century also experienced the highest correlation between precipitation and temperature. The different time scales in the four types of climate-induced potential productivity changed periodically in the wavelet analysis, but was relatively consistent. The first major periodic oscillation of the wavelet analysis was 215-219 years, and other major periodic oscillations in wavelet analysis were at 138, 138, 136, 138 years. W showed a consistently positive trend in northern Da Hinggan Mountain, high, sub-high, and low values of W in Genhe, Tahe, and southern Elunchun Counties of northern Da Hinggan Mountain, respectively. That is, the amplitude of the W gradually decreased from northwest to southeast. Therefore, the geographical environment greatly influenced the value of W as it varied significantly across the region. Climate-induced potential productivity was relatively high in the region with a good correlation between temperature and precipitation. The regional ecosystems are obviously dominated by forest vegetation with lush growth in northern area where the original forest landscape remained more intact than in the south where secondary forest vegetation is dominant. In addition, W was significantly positively correlated with annual air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. A 1℃ increase in mean annual air temperature and 10 mm increase in annual precipitation and evapotranspiration could induce an increase in W by 453.71, 74.40, 219.01 kg/hm2 in standard climate-induced potential productivity, respectively. Overall, air temperature is the main factor influencing any change in W. In the future, a warm-wet climate will be beneficial for the growth of forest vegetation, whereas a cold-dry climate will be unfavorable. Climate change is expected to create a warmer-wetter climate in northern Da Hinggan Mountain region, which could increase the potential productivity. If the temperature increases (or decreases) 1-2℃, precipitation increase would be expected to increase (or decrease) 10%-20%, and the potential productivity based on climatic conditions would increase (or decrease) within a range of 10.9 to 21.7%. These results may provide a basic method for studying potential productivity based on climate change for forest vegetation at regional scales, and an important reference value for future estimations of forest carbon-sinks, implementing carbon trade in the near future, studying ecological security, and formulating ecological function planning in China's northern border.