基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟
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河北农业大学国土资源学院,河北农业大学,河北农业大学,河北农业大学

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国家公益性基金项目(201411103);国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2005CB121107)


Multi-scenario simulation of land use structure based on dual combined models
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Institute of Land and Resources,Agricultural University of Hebei,Institute of Land and Resources,Agricultural University of Hebei,Institute of Land and Resources,Agricultural University of Hebei,Institute of Land and Resources,Agricultural University of Hebei

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    摘要:

    土地生态服务功能的重要性越来越受到人们的重视,以河北省卢龙县为案例区,以土地生态服务功能和经济功能提升为目标,基于100 m×100 m尺度的遥感解译图像,分别利用CLUE-S及基于MOP和CLUE-S整合模型对研究区土地利用结构进行数量及空间优化模拟。结果表明:到2020年,单模型模拟的土地经济功能有所提升,但生态服务功能却减退;基于MOP和CLUE-S优化整合模型模拟的生态服务功能和经济功能分别比2013年提升8.40%及8.20%。耕地、建设用地、林地面积都有所增加,其它用地减少较多。研究表明,MOP和CLUE-S整合模型与单模型相比,到2020年土地两项功能值之和有所增加,特别是生态功能增加幅度较大,MOP和CLUE-S模型结合的优化方案优于CLUE-S单模型优化方案。

    Abstract:

    Land is not only a fundamental requirement for people's life, but also an indispensable factor in economic development. However, utilizing land usually results in changes to the structure and function of ecological systems, which may have a notable impact on the environment and natural resources. Since the industrial revolution, the overuse and damage of land has become the main cause of a decline in ecological function and the deterioration of the environment, and has led to the loss of sustainability for the entire biosphere. Recently, the essential roles of ecological services have been recognized, and attention has been called to the ecological and economic benefits of related projects. Allocation of land use in order to optimize its spatial structure of is a prerequisite for enhancing its economic and ecological benefits. In this study, we analyzed the changes in both the structure of land use and the rules used to determine its functions from 2006 to 2013 in Lulong County, based on remote sensing data from this period. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the most influential factors and to characterize their inter-relationships and relative functions. The factors identified were examined by successfully simulating the spatial distribution of 6 land use types in Lulong. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) values greater than 0.80 for the land use types categorized as:"cultivated land," "garden plot," "forest," "construction land," "water," and "other land" were observed. Following this, the land use types for Lulong County in 2020 were predicted using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent (CLUE-S) model. To improve both the economic functioning and the ecological services provided by land in Lulong, Multi-objective Programming (MOP) and CLUE-S models were integrated. This integration enabled the optimization of the quantity and spatial structure of land used, through building constraint functions and conversion rules developed using remote sensing images on a 100 m×100 m grid scale. Comparison of the results obtained with the traditional land use simulation method between the multi-model and CLUE-S showed that the economic functions of Lulong County could be increased by 12.95% from 2013 to 2020, while ecological services are likely to be reduced. Because of the increase in areas of cultivated land, garden plots, and construction sites predicted by 2020, the economic function of land in Lulong will increase, while there will be associated losses in ecological services (due primarily to sharp decreases in the water and forest areas). Optimizing the land use structure of Lulong County using the integrated model created with MOP and CLUE-S may facilitate increases in both economic and ecological functions by 8.20% and 8.40%, respectively. This predicts greater increases in ecological services and total functional value than the simulation results obtained with the CLUE-S model alone. Simulated results that showed a decrease in the "unused land" areas, coupled with an increase in areas of cultivated land, garden plot, forest, and construction sites confirmed that combing the CLUE-S and MOP models provided improved results than with the CLUE-S model alone. This indicates that our method has potential to be an effective tool for managing and planning economic services and leading to the stabilization of the soil ecosystem balance, as well as achieving sustainable use of zone-limited land resources. This data could facilitate sustainable development of Lulong County's economy and ecology. Additionally, Lulong is located within the economic sphere of influence of Jing-Jin-Ji and Bohai Rim. Thus, it is readily influenced by several regional policies. Increased simulation accuracy would be expected if more detailed and accurate zonal policy data are acquired.

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陈影,张利,何玲,门明新.基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟.生态学报,2016,36(17):5391~5400

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