Abstract:In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of weather and soil on the growth of wheat crops, we use the day-to-day meteorological data from Jiangsu Province during 19802010, and develop an ecological suitability model of winter wheat on the basis of the niche suitability theory and fuzzy mathematics. The growth suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province is evaluated and the regions in the province are delineated for different degrees of suitability with the aid of GIS spatial interpolation and analysis technologies; the different degrees of suitability assigned included the most suitable, more suitable, suitable, and not suitable. The major ecological factors affecting winter wheat growth such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, soil depth, organic matter, and pH value were considered during the analysis. The analysis process includes four parts. First, the analysis was performed taking into account every growth period of winter wheat, to gain spatial distribution of meteorological stations during 19802010, using the most suitable method from the six spatial interpolation methods, including IDW, Kriging, and spline. Second, the analysis was conducted using the fuzzy mathematical models and considering the obtained ecoclimatic indices for the crop's growth period, and the suitability of temperature, precipitation, and sunlight in different growth periods. Third, the weight of each meteorological factor at the different stages, the suitability of temperature, precipitation, and sunlight for the entire life period were calculated for analysis. Lastly, the comprehensive adaptability model for winter wheat was constructed using the relative weight method which determine the weight of all factors, each high suitability degree factor multiplied to reduce its weight while each weak factor multiplied to increase its weight. The integrated suitability values of winter wheat were calculated using this comprehensive adaptability model taking into consideration the previous results that took into account the temperature, precipitation, sunshine, soil thickness, soil pH, and soil organic matter concentration. The conclusions of our research are:1) The suitability of temperature and sunshine hours gradually decreases from north to south within the study area, while the suitability of rainfall gradually decreases from south to north. 2) The suitability of soil thickness and soil organic matter are higher for crop growth in most of the study area, while the suitability of the soil pH value is low. For climatic suitability, the suitability value of Jiangsu Province varied from 0.68 to 0.81, where the suitability in middle and north area exceeds 0.73. 3) The climate of Jiangsu Province is suitable for the growth of winter wheat, and the suitability value decreases from north to south. Considering soil suitability, the value for middle, south and northwest parts of study area are more than 0.7, which indicates that they are suitable for the growth of winter wheat. 4) The comprehensive suitability degree for most part of research area varies from 0.5 to 0.86, which is considered suitable for the growth of winter wheat. Our research can provide reasonable guidance to the scientific plans for the cultivation of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the developed suitability model that considers crop variety and its growth stages provides a new method to the crop ecological suitability evaluation, and can be used in similar researches.