In order to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Quercus variabilis, one of the most widely distributed species in East Asia, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) was used to analyze the potential distribution under past (Mid Holocene, 6000 years ago), current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. The jackknife method was used to reveal the contribution of the dominant climatic factors of Q. variabilis. The results showed that the potential distribution of Q. variabilis under the current climate conditions centered on the south of East Asia, comprising up to 21.88% of the total studied area. The distribution range was mostly located in central and south of China, as well as south of the Korean peninsula, and central to south of Japan. Suitable habitats, comprising 5.69% of the studied area, were mainly centered on Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Luoxiao, Nanling, and Wuyi Mountains, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and Taiwan. The climate change scenarios showed that the areas of the suitable habitats have changed slightly, while significantly for the distribution range. With changes in global climate volatility, the distribution centers of Q. variabilis are gradually concentrating in the regions of Qinling and Daba Mountains and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the areas of suitable habitats are gradually expanding. Minimum air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), and annual precipitation (Bio12) were found to be dominant in influencing the geographic distribution of Q. variabilis, with contribution rates of 48.6%, 21.4%, and 14.2%, respectively.