Abstract:Earth is undergoing an obvious global warming, which has attracted the attention of people and governments worldwide. In fact, global warming exerts a negative effect on people and various other species. Climate change greatly affects plant and animal growth; it is one of the main factors for the decline in biodiversity and species extinction. Therefore, it is important to study how climate affects species habitats, especially those of endangered species, to protect biodiversity and maintain the functional integrity of the ecosystem. We used the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and selected 22 different environmental factors that may influence the distribution of the moose (Alces alces cameloides) to simulate the distribution of its potential habitat in Northeastern China under the current climate conditions (1950-2000). The future potential habitats for the moose were also predicted in two periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, under two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Furthermore, we evaluated the performance of this model by using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic curve. The results show that the prediction of Maxent is precise and acceptable (mean AUC=0.845). Among the 22 environmental factors, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and mean diurnal range have great influences on potential habitats for the moose. Under current climate conditions, 36.4% of the study area, mainly the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains, is a potential habitat for the moose. With climate change, the area of the potential habitat in the study area would decrease faster than the increase rate of a new potential habitat, resulting in a rapid decline in the area of the entire potential habitat. The decline in RCP8.5 climate scenarios is higher than that in RCP4.5 climate scenarios. By 2041-2060, the current potential distribution will reduce by 62.3%; the new potential distribution will increase by 3.6%; and the maximum total potential distribution will decrease by 65.6%, with an average decrease of 58.8%. By 2061-2080, the current potential distribution will decrease by 75.8%; the new potential distribution will increase by 1.9%; and the maximum total potential distribution will decrease by 93.1%, with an average decrease of 73.9%. In terms of spatial distribution of the potential habitat for the moose, the geometric center of the potential habitat will first move northwest, and then move southwest. By 2041-2060, the center of the potential habitat in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will shift by 183.5 km and 210.8 km, respectively; by 2061-2080, the corresponding distance will shrink to 28.7 km and 33.8 km, respectively. On the basis of these data, it can be safely concluded that the potential distribution of moose will generally shift to a region at a higher latitude and altitude. Therefore, measures for the protection of habitats for the moose in Northeastern China are urgently required.