Abstract:Allocation of carbon dioxide emission rights is one of the effective ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, an annual reduction rate needs to be determined to achieve this goal gradually. Given the negative effect of the emission reduction on economy, it is necessary to perform the emission reduction under the conditions of optimal and balanced economic growth, without causing an economic crisis. Hence, an optimal and balanced economic growth pathway is taken into account during calculations of the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction. In this study, consequently, we try to determine the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction that ensures balanced economic growth, with the constraint of the objective of a certain regional carbon dioxide emission quota. First, we present a calculation flow chart showing how to achieve the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction. On the basis of the flow chart, we describe an algorithm aimed at determining the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction and use it to calculate such a rate for each province given their carbon dioxide emission quota determined by means of the allocation principles forward-looking, population, GDP, GDP-population, and ability-to-pay. A higher control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction means more efforts are needed to reduce the carbon dioxide emission. Furthermore, in this study, we selected five provinces and autonomous regions of China (Shanghai, Shanxi, Hunan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) as research cases, analyzed the path of economic growth and energy-induced carbon dioxide emission with the objective of welfare maximization and the constraint of carbon dioxide emission quota for the participating regions. The simulation shows that the growth rate of the economy drops gradually under the constraints of carbon dioxide emission reduction in all regions. For instance, the economic growth rate of Shanghai is lower than that in other eastern provinces and even negative along with a decline of the economic growth rate at later development stages (with the principle of ability-to-pay). Shanghai has to purchase carbon dioxide emission quota rights to keep the positive economic growth rate in the future. Shanxi attains a lower emission reduction rate by means of the forward-looking principle, which maintains Shanxi's economic growth rate at a relatively high level. Hunan stays on a similar path of economic growth and an emission reduction rate with various allocation principles. Therefore, the principle of emission right allocation has a smaller effect on the economy and on the reduction rate. Yunnan shows a higher economic growth rate with the principle of ability-to-pay, followed by the scenario involving the population principle. With the principle of GDP, the economic growth rate is the lowest. Similarly, Xinjiang achieves the highest economic growth rate with the principle of ability-to-pay, and lowest or even negative growth rate with the GDP or GDP-population principle. The carbon dioxide emission will first increase and then decrease, and the peak years of carbon dioxide emission are 2032 for Shanghai, 2033 for Hunan, 2036 for both Yunnan and Xinjiang, and 2039 for Shanxi province. Hence, more efforts are needed if these provinces want to achieve their carbon dioxide emission peak before 2030. Finally, we found that eastern provinces require the minimum reduction rate when using the GDP principle; western provinces by means of the ability-to-pay principle; and central provinces by means of the population principle. Among all the allocation principles, the forward-looking principle is suitable for China to allocate the carbon dioxide emission rights from the standpoint of carbon dioxide control and regional disparities in growth rate.