磷元素物质流分析研究进展
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中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,清华大学 环境学院,中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,清华大学 环境学院

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国家自然科学基金(71103186);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAD11B03);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(BSRF201311)


Research on phosphorus flow analysis:Progress and perspectives
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Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,,,,

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    摘要:

    磷是重要的营养元素,也是不可再生的重要非金属矿物资源。为了分析人类活动对磷流动的扰动,国内外开展了大量磷元素的物质流分析和模拟。综述了磷元素物质流分析的最新研究进展,分析了国内外磷元素物质流研究的特点和不足,并展望了未来相关研究的研究热点和发展方向。从研究尺度看,现有磷元素的物质流研究以全球尺度和国家尺度为主,区域和城市尺度以及企业和产品尺度的研究较少。从研究问题看,现阶段研究主要关注农业或者食品生产和消费对磷流动的影响,对林业、钢铁和能源部门略有涉及。从模型特征看,现有研究以分析流量变化的静态模型为主,考虑存量变化的动态模拟较少。从研究的发展方向看,未来磷物质流的相关分析将关注五大问题:(1)考虑不同驱动力和存量变化的动态模拟;(2)不同层次和尺度的磷足迹研究;(3)磷与其他元素相比对社会经济的重要性;(4)全球变化背景下不同部门磷依赖的脆弱性;(5)磷和其他元素的耦合研究。为了适应未来的研究需求,磷的物质流模拟重点在于开发动态模型,并将物质流分析与多种手段结合,以预测全球变化、社会经济发展、技术变化以及其他重要变化对磷流动的扰动及其相应的环境影响。

    Abstract:

    Phosphorus (P) is one of three nutrients (together with nitrogen and potassium) essential for plant growth. It is also an important non-renewable, non-metal mineral resource. With economic development and population increases, phosphorus scarcity has become an important global challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, the economy, and the environment. To analyze human influences on phosphorus flow, research has simulated anthropogenic-centered phosphorus flows within socioeconomic systems and sub-systems. This paper reviewed recent progress in phosphorus flow analysis, identified the characteristics and insufficiencies of existing studies, and projected future avenues of development for phosphorus flow analysis. Existing studies may be categorized according to the scale of the socioeconomic system (or sub-system) into four levels-global, national (including multi-national), regional, or city level-as well as either enterprise or product level. Presently, most studies have been conducted at the global or national (or multi-national) levels, while few has been performed at regional or city levels, or at enterprise or product levels. So far, more than 15 countries and multi-national regions have carried out phosphorus flow analyses, most of which focused on disturbances due to agriculture and food production and consumption. A few studies have examined disturbances due to forestry, iron and steel production, and energy sector activities, and the potential for increasing phosphorus use efficiencies in these sectors. In addition, most current studies use static models, and few employ dynamic models that consider long-term changes in phosphorus stocks. Fewer studies combines classical methods and tools, such as life-cycle analysis or input-output analysis, with material flow analysis or substance flow analysis (MFA or SFA). We identified five topics for future researches:(1) dynamic simulations of phosphorus flow with consideration of long-term changes in important driving forces (population, diet, bio-energy development, etc.) and in phosphorus stocks, (2) phosphorus footprint analyses at various scales or for various sectors of economic development, (3) the critical need for phosphorus for social and economic development, compared to that of other elements (such as metals or rare earth elements), (4) the vulnerability of phosphorus to global changes (particularly climate change), and (5) the relationship between phosphorus and other important elements (such as carbon, nitrogen, or metal elements). To meet future research demands, it is necessary to develop a dynamic model of phosphorus flow and to combine traditional material flow analyses with current tools and models, both from industrial ecology and from other disciplines. These may include economic models, input-output analyses, life-cycle analyses, network analyses, and computable general equilibrium models, and agent-based models, all required to project the effects of global changes, socio-economic development, and technological innovation on phosphorus flow and the resulting environmental impacts.

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陈敏鹏,郭宝玲,刘昱,夏旭,陈吉宁.磷元素物质流分析研究进展.生态学报,2015,35(20):6891~6900

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