Abstract:Under global climate change, agricultural meteorological disasters are increasing. The affected area, frequency, and intensity of dry-hot wind have significantly changed. Therefore, researching the impacts of dry-hot wind on crops will have great practical significance for sustainable agriculture development and food security. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the yield loss of winter wheat caused by dry-hot wind in Huanghuaihai Plain: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 68 meteorological stations in Huanghuaihai Plain from 1961 to 2010; (2) the observations (growth stages, yield, hot wind disasters of winter wheat, etc.) from 54 agro-meteorological experimental stations in Huanghuaihai Plain from 1981 to 2006; (3) recognized hazard indicators about disaster grades of dry-hot wind for winter wheat from the meteorological industry standard which was released by China Meteorological Administration in 2007; (4) detailed developmental stages in which dry-hot wind occurred: from tasseling to flowering, from flowering to milky maturity, and from milky maturity to maturity. The hazard index of dry-hot wind was further calculated. The key meteorological factors affecting the meteorological yield of winter wheat before tasseling were determined. The meteorological yields of winter wheat during the year of dry-hot wind were separated. Next, in order to evaluate the yield loss of winter wheat caused by dry-hot wind, the model was constructed between the hazard index of severe dry-hot wind and the effect of meteorological conditions on meteorological yield before heading. The results showed that: (1) under severe dry-hot wind, the average hazard index of dry-hot wind from 1981 to 2006 in Huanghuaihai Plain was the highest during the stage from tasseling to flowering (0.17), medium during the stage from milky maturity to maturity (0.15), and the lowest during the stage from flowering to milky maturity (0.14), with an average of 0.15; (2) the key meteorological factors determining the effect of meteorological conditions on meteorological yield before tasseling were the minimum temperature during the stage from sowing to emergence, the average temperature during the stage from jointing to booting, and the average temperature during the stage from booting to tasseling. Among them, the minimum temperature during the stage from sowing to emergence can determine the seeding time of wheat and the detailed growth of the seedlings. As for the stage from jointing to booting, the low temperature in the flower primordia -tetrad formation period can prolong the spike and floret time, prevent degradation, and improve the seed maturation rate. The high average temperature during the stage from booting to tasseling is conducive to early heading, to extend the late filling time. Furthermore, it is favorable for pollination to occur during sunny days. (3) After clarifying the meteorological yields of winter wheat during the year in which dry-hot wind occurred, the statistical models describing the relationships between the hazard index of severe dry-hot wind and the effect of meteorological conditions on meteorological yield were constructed. These models could synthetically reflect the impact of dry-hot wind on wheat yield at different developmental stages. The assessment showed that the yield losses of winter wheat caused by severe dry-hot wind disaster in Huanghuaihai Plain were between 21.58% and 39.96%, with an average of 27.91%.