Abstract:Invasive exotic species are increasingly recognized as important drivers of ecological change. Understanding the persistence and growth of natural populations in environments prone to disturbance is very important for both conservation of threatened species and control of invasive species. In this study, neutral landscape and spatially explicit cellular automata models are employed to numerically analyze the interactive effects of key demographic traits, competitive abilities, and landscape patterns on the spread dynamics of exotic species. Available habitat was shown to be of great importance in spread dynamics and mediating the effects of landscape structure. For ‘strong’ invasive species, spread and invasion are facilitated by large areas of highly clumped available habitat. In contrast, for ‘weak’ alien species, scattered small patches of habitat facilitate survival. Strong competitors can efficiently exploit the massive clumps of resources, while poor competitors tend to occupy disrupted niches. Aggregation is another critical factor affecting exotic species invasions, especially for weak nonnative competitors. Exotic species abundance increased quickly in the first two years, before plateauing for 2-3 years, after which it decreased rapidly. In a scenario where more than 50% of the habitat is available, the lower habitat aggregation leads to longer lag times in which weak exotic species adapt to the new environment. The spread of invasive exotic species was positively related to fecundity and negatively related to reproductive age. The best fitting curve for this relationship varies with landscape patterns and competitive ability. For strong competitors, spread is generally logarithmically related to fecundity or reproductive age, but in some cases, quadratic polynomial relationship can provide a better fit. For poor competitors, the relationships among exotic species spread, fecundity and reproductive age are complex. Mean dispersal distance is the key determinant of the spread of exotic species. Compared to the gradual increase in strong exotic species, mean dispersal distance has a greater effect on the spread of weak exotic species. The abundance of inferior competitors rapidly increased as mean dispersal distance increased. Preventing invasive alien plants from reaching new areas should be the most cost effective means of control. In general, two methods can be applied, targeting demographic traits such as fecundity, reproduction, and survival, or managing landscape structure, such as corridors for spread. However, increasing landscape fragmentation will not be an effective method for controlling invasion by weak exotic species. According to our simulation results, habitat conservation needs to be tailored to each specific situation. For example, the abundance of weak exotic species increases when landscape aggregation, fecundity, and mean dispersal distance decrease. Therefore, management strategies should be modified to suit different targets with different competitive and demographic characteristics, and specific landscape scenarios. In this study, we only considered the spread dynamics of invasive species with short-distance dispersal. Further studies on the effect of long-distance dispersal on the invasion and spread of exotic species are required.