Abstract:The study of land carrying capacity is important for coordinating the development of resources, environment, and the economy. This carrying capacity is an important element in the study of regional sustainable development. Coastal areas have the greatest populations, highest population densities, rich resources, and convenient transportation. As in other coastal countries, the coastal area of China is the most developed part of the country. With the acceleration of urbanization, population and economic activity are strongly agglomerating in these coastal areas, resulting in a series of land use conflicts. With such tremendous growth of the economy and society, the conflict between supply and demand of land resources has become increasingly acute. Unreasonable and excessive use of land resources has caused serious damage to the ecological environment of coastal areas and a degradation of land resources. Study on the land carrying capacity of the Bohai Sea coastal areas has great significance for the sustainable development of the Bohai Sea economic circle. The land resource system is complex and has openness, dynamics, social and other characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately quantify the population, environment, and socioeconomic development. It is also difficult to quantify limits on the land carrying capacity. However, by constructing an indicator system, we can measure dynamic trends and relative land carrying capacity, thereby guiding land use activities. Land carrying capacity assessment is a comprehensive evaluation that involves multiple factors, including natural, social, economic, technological, and others. These factors are interconnected and place mutual restrictions on each other. Relationships between these factors are complex. There is vagueness and uncertainty, as well as dynamic variability under certain temporal and spatial conditions. To date, studies on land carrying capacity have mostly concentrated on inland and ecologically vulnerable areas. There is little research on land carrying capacity in coastal areas. Further, classification standards of assessment indexes in variable fuzzy assessment are mostly determined with reference to relevant statistical data and existing standards. There is a certain subjectivity and arbitrariness, along with inaccuracies. In view of the limitations of prior studies, this work applied the Weber-Fischna law to determine classification standards of assessment indexes. We also used D-S evidential theory to combine subjective factor weights and objective weights to make integrated weights more reliable and accurate. The variable fuzzy assessment method was used to assess comprehensive land carrying capacity in the Bohai Sea coastal areas. Results for those areas show that the land carrying capacity of seventeen cities from 2000 to 2011 had an upward trend on the whole, along with obvious spatial distribution differences. There were higher land carrying capacities at Tianjin, Tangshan, Dalian, Panjin, Qingdao, Dongying, Yantai, and Weihai. Those capacities at Jinzhou, Yingkou, Qinhuangdao, Binzhou, Weifang, and Rizhao were at a medium level, and those at Cangzhou, Dandong, and Huludao were relatively low. The economic development level had strong effects on land carrying capacity. An appropriate economic scale and structure is conducive to sustainable and intensive land use. Application of the variable fuzzy assessment model to land carrying capacity is characterized by simple calculation, ease of operation, and reliable results.