At present, China is actively promoting the ecological civilization construction and the ecological security is an important part of ecological civilization construction. Early-warning is a key content of ecological security research, which can make an evaluation, prediction and alarm for the changes of the regional ecological environment quality and social economy coordinated development. It also has a significant meaning in maintain the regional ecological security. Early-warning of ecological security research for old industrial bases has a certain particularity and typicality. This paper selected Jilin Province as the study region; constructed an ecological security early-warning index system by employing the "Pressure-State-Response" (PSR) and "Ecology-Environment-Economy-Society" (EEES) model. Then we used the variable weight and matter element analysis model to estimate the early-warning level of ecological security of Jilin Province from 1991 to 2011.At last the grey system GM (1,1) model was used to predict the regional ecological security trend of Jilin Province in 2015 and 2020. The results indicated that: (1) The overall level of ecological security showed an upward trend in Jilin Province in 1991-2011, the warning degree rose from "huge alarm" to "light alarm" and the indicator lamp turned from red lamp to blue lamp; (2) In 2015, the warning degree will be "light alarm" and the indicator lamp will be blue. In 2020, the warning degree of Jilin Province will be "no alarm" and the indicator lamp will be green. But it has the trend of turning into "light alarm"; (3) The main factors that restrict the improvement of ecological security of Jilin Province include Consumption of chemical fertilizer per hectare cultivated land, Urbanization, Per capital water resources, GDP growth rate and Primary industry production per GDP, Which are the focus of ecological environment protection in the future. This study will provide a reference to achieve economy-ecology-society sustainable developing of Jilin Province. So, we may take some necessary measures to guide rationally consumption of chemical fertilizers; to improve agricultural production technique and adjust agricultural structure further; to follow a new path of industrialization and reduce the energy consumption; to change economic growth patterns and promote a energy-saving and emission reduction; to accelerate development of green economy and circular economy; to save water and promote water-saving technological in key industrial areas; to control water pollution in key basins, and at last to realize coordinated development between industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and ecological environment protection. The forewarning model of regional ecological security that used in this study combined variable weight theory with matter element analysis. It not only reflects the role of factors changing in the regional ecological security early-warning, meanwhile, it can analyze the alert-situation on the single factor and pay more attention on the adverse factors that affected the ecological security. It can also integrate the evaluation results of single factors estimate and alarm the ecological security of the whole region and realize the function of regional ecological security early-warning more preferable.