基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析-选取11个国家为数据源
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荷兰莱顿大学环境科学系

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国家公派留学基金项目(20113005)


Assessing the natural capital use of eleven nations: an application of a revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint
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Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University

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    摘要:

    自然资本利用评估是可持续发展量化领域的重要课题。生态足迹三维模型首次实现了流量资本与存量资本的分类测度, 为更全面、准确地反映人类利用自然资本的状况提供了可行的途径。从探讨模型缺陷入手, 通过细致追踪各地类载体上的流量资本与存量资本变化, 克服了地类间赤字转移问题, 明确了适用于区域尺度和地类尺度的足迹广度、足迹深度和三维足迹等指标的计算方法。运用改进后的模型, 分析了1999-2008年全球11 个国家自然资本利用的时空变化特征。结果表明: 在过去10年自然资本利用的国际格局中, 美国、法国和德国(后6年)为流量资本与存量资本双高型; 印度(前2年)为双低型; 英国、德国(前4年)、意大利、日本、印度(后8年)和中国为流量资本低、存量资本高型; 加拿大、巴西和俄罗斯为流量资本高、存量资本低型。研究表明: 各国的自然资本利用状况是自然资源禀赋与社会经济发展水平共同作用的结果, 发达国家的自然资本利用强度总体仍显著高于发展中国家; 流量资本占用与存量资本消耗之间存在负相关性, 资源富足型国家的人均区域足迹广度一般较高, 区域足迹深度相对较低, 资源贫乏型国家则相反。针对研究存在的局限性提出了进一步改进的优先方向。

    Abstract:

    Over the past years a continuously expanding list of ecological indicators termed "footprint" has been introduced to the scientific community, with the aim of assisting policy makers in better understanding the pressures that humanity places upon our planet. Nowadays footprint-type indicators have grown in interest and popularity, and the sustainability issues they are addressing have been far beyond the original scope. The mathematics behind the criterion of strong sustainability, for instance, has been demonstrated from the perspective of ecological footprint. As a consequence, accounting for natural capital use becomes one of the most compelling topics in the fields of footprint analysis. A three-dimensional (3D) model of the ecological footprint has been developed for the measurement of the human-induced natural capital use. This model is unique from other ecological footprint models in the sense that it allows, for the first time, a simultaneous assessment of the flows and stocks of natural capital at the regional and land levels. This paper starts from the idea of operationalizing the 3D model in a more accurate and robust way. To that end, we critically review the classical version of the 3D model, and propose to prevent unintended deficit shifting by tracking the appropriation of the capital flows and the depletion of the capital stocks among diverse types of land use. Using a revised version of the 3D model, the natural capital use for eleven nations throughout the world has been evaluated by means of three key indicators, namely the footprint size, the footprint depth, and the 3D footprint. It is indicated that over the past 10 years, a change has been witnessed with respect to international distribution of the appropriation of natural capital flows and of the depletion of natural capital stocks. In evaluating the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural capital use among these nations, four categories have been classified as follows: (1) double-high flows and stocks use category which is observed in US, France, and Germany (during the latter six years); (2) double-low flows and stocks use category observed only in India during the first two years; (3) the category with low flows appropriation and high stocks depletion observed in UK, Germany (during the first four years), Italy, Japan, India (during the latter eight years), and China; and (4) the category with high flows appropriation and low stocks depletion observed in Canada, Brazil, and Russia. Our findings suggest that the spatial distribution of national natural capital use is largely driven by not only natural resource endowment but also social and economic expansion. This is the reason why the intensity of natural capital use in developed nations in general is significantly higher than that in developing nations, even though the gap is narrowing. A negative correlation has been identified between the appropriation of flows and the depletion of stocks. More specifically, the resource-rich nations usually result in a high national footprint size per capita and a relatively low national footprint depth, while the resource-poor nations, on the contrary, have a low national footprint size per capita and a high national footprint depth. Our analysis implies that many industrial countries, in particular developing nations, follow the evolution process of natural capital use from low intensity to high intensity. The 3D ecological footprint model has the potential to uncover the link between human demand for natural capital and the process of national industrialization. Ultimately, this paper lays out some priorities for further improving natural capital assessment through the combination of footprint family and planetary boundaries under a multiregional input-output model.

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方恺.基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析-选取11个国家为数据源.生态学报,2015,35(11):3766~3777

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