中国省际水足迹强度收敛的空间计量分析
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辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院

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国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY063);教育部新世纪优秀人才项目(NCET-13-0844)


A spatial econometric analysis of water footprint intensity convergence on a provincial scale in China
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School of Urban and Environmental Sciences of Liaoning Normal University,School of Urban and Environmental Sciences of Liaoning Normal University,School of Urban and Environmental Sciences of Liaoning Normal University

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    摘要:

    计算了1997-2010年中国31个省市的水足迹强度,整体呈现明显下降趋势;运用全局Moran’s I指数探讨中国各省市水足迹强度空间自相关模式,发现1997-2010年水足迹强度显示出全局正的自相关,自相关程度逐年增大。基于省际水足迹强度的面板数据,空间计量收敛分析结果表明中国各省市水足迹强度存在绝对β收敛,空间因素在水足迹强度收敛过程中起到重要作用。在考虑了空间效应情况下,收敛时间明显延长。通过条件β收敛检验,人均GDP、人均水足迹、工业水足迹强度、教育经费比重、外商直接投资、市场化程度均在不同程度上影响着水足迹强度收敛。在标准条件β收敛模型中人均GDP和工业水足迹强度分别正向和负向显著影响水足迹强度的收敛,而在空间滞后模型和空间误差模型中的条件β收敛中只有人均水足迹负向显著影响水足迹强度的收敛。最后对中国水资源利用效率健康发展提出了相应的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    China's water resource management is currently facing two main problems: a shortage of water resources and a deterioration of the water ecological environment. The rapid economic growth of China's provinces has led to the water crisis becoming an important factor restricting China's sustainable social and economic development. To solve the problem of the sustainability of Chinese water resource use it is necessary to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources. A traditional evaluation of water resource use efficiency measures agricultural, industrial, and domestic water consumption. However, this measure cannot reflect the actual water resource consumption of society as a whole. Therefore, developing a more accurate measurement of water resource consumption is an important part of solving the problem of water resource sustainability. Water footprint intensity is an index that is able to reflect the efficiency of water resource utilization. Meanwhile, some previous researchers have investigated the convergence of the water footprint intensity of China's provinces and economic growth. In this paper, we calculate the water footprint intensity of China's 31 provinces from 1997 to 2010. Our results show that there is a general decreasing tendency, which means that water use efficiency is increasing. The Global Moran index was then applied to explore the spatial autocorrelation pattern of the water footprint intensity of China's provinces. These results show that water footprint intensity has positive autocorrelation characteristics and that the autocorrelation degree increases year by year. Based on the panel data of provincial water footprint intensity, the space measuring convergence analysis results show that the water footprint intensity in China exhibits absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence. Furthermore, space effect factors are shown to play an important role in the convergence process of the intensity of water footprint. Considering the spatial effect, the convergent speed slows down greatly. the convergence rate of water footprint intensity is much slower. The rapid rate of China's economic development means that underdeveloped areas are catching up with developed areas faster than the convergence rate of water footprint intensity. The conditional convergence test shows that per capita GDP, per capita water footprint, industrial water footprint intensity, the proportion of education funds, foreign direct investment, and degree of marketization have different effects on the intensity of water footprint convergence. Per capita GDP has a significant positive effect on the standard conditional β convergence model. Meanwhile, industrial water footprint intensity has a significant negative affect on the convergence rate of water footprint intensity. The conditional β convergence model contains spatial lag and spatial error effects, while per capita water footprint exhibits a significant negative impact on the convergence rate of water footprint intensity. Finally, the space effect factors show that the per capita water footprint affects the convergence of water footprint intensity. China's rapidly developing economy has led to the need to introduce a water saving policy. Our results show that the convergence rate of water footprint intensity can speed up water resource use efficiency in China's provinces, which can help to maintain sustainable development. Controlling the regional differences of water footprint intensity can improve China's water use efficiency and so ensure sustainable economic and social development. On that basis, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions for the healthy development of China's water resources use efficiency. Importantly, a cooperative relationship needs to be established by making full use of the conditions of water resource endowment conditions and by exploiting the differences of water footprint intensity between different regions. In addition, it is recommended that relevant departments should formulate a ladder price standard of rational consumption of water. Finally, more attention should be given to China's water use efficiency and sustainable social development.

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赵良仕,孙才志,郑德凤.中国省际水足迹强度收敛的空间计量分析.生态学报,2014,34(5):1085~1093

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