With the acceleration of urbanization and globalization of economy, the relationship between economy, resources, ecosystem and environment has attracted extensive attention.In the arid area of northwest China, the oasis urban development has been strongly restricted by water resources shortage and fragility of ecosystem and environment.Based on data about urban development and water resources of Urumuqi from 1995 to 2010, the relationship between urban development and water resources potentials was discussed in this study, which important for sustainability of oasis economy, society, ecosystem and environment in arid areas.
First,sixteen indexes of population, economy, society and space were used to characterize the level of urban development, and fifteen indexes from natural background, exploitation, utilization efficiency and management of water resources were selected to quantify water resources potential.The weights of indexes were determined using AHP based on entropy theory.Then comprehensive evaluation models were built to analyze the change of urban development level and water resources potential.At last, the model describing coordination degree between urban development and water resource potential was constructed and improved repeatedly to quantitatively evaluate the coordination relationship of Urumqi city.
This study showed that: (1) the urban development level of Urumqi increased from 0.0771 of 1995 to 0.9263 of 2010.The rapid increases of urban population and GDP caused significant increase of comprehensive level of urban development whereas the social progress and expansion of the urban space had relatively small impact.(2) Water resources potential showed an overall downward trend with fluctuation.Comprehensive index of water resources potential dropped from 0.4722 of 1995 to 0.3520 of 2010.The natural background of water resources was the main factor affecting water resources potential.Over-exploitation of groundwater resources caused significant increase of degree of water resources exploitation, and thus the decrease of water resources potential.The improvement of utilization efficiency and management enhanced water resources potential.(3) The coordination degree between urban development and water resource systems increased first and decreased afterwards.Generally, the coordination degree in the past years was low and the conflict between the two systems has been intensified.