1961-2012年西藏色林错流域极端气温事件变化趋势
作者:
作者单位:

西藏自治区气候中心,西藏自治区气候中心,西藏自治区气象服务中心

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201333); 西藏自治区气象局科技创新团队基金


Extreme air temperature changes in Selin Co basin, Tibet (1961-2012)
Author:
Affiliation:

Tibet climate centre,Tibet climate centre,Meteorological Service Centre of Tibet

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    利用西藏色林错流域2个气象站1961-2012年逐日最高气温、最低气温和平均气温资料,分析了流域极端气温事件的变化规律。结果表明:近52年色林错流域TXx、TNn呈上升趋势,尤其是TNn升幅更大,达1.10 ℃/10a。极端气温暖指标(TNx、TX90p、TN90p)和生长季长度(GSL)呈明显的增加趋势,而极端气温冷指标(FD、ID、TX10p、TN10p)和DTR为显著的下降趋势。流域绝大部分极端气温指数的变化幅度均比全球、全国和青藏高原偏大,特别是TN90p的变幅最大。在10年际变化尺度上,TNn、TX90p、TN90p和DTR呈逐年代增加趋势,极端气温冷指数和GSL为下降趋势。从时间转折上看,各项极端气温指数均有突变发生,突变点主要出现在20世纪80年代中期以后。最低气温及与之相关的极端气温冷指数的显著上升与色林错湖泊面积的增加密切相关。

    Abstract:

    Selin Co Lake is expanding at a rate of 20% or an average of 420 km2 per decade. Thus, it has become the largest inland salty lake in Tibet, exceeding the area of Nam Co Lake during 1999-2008. The main reasons for the lake's expansion are the increase in snow/ice meltwater under the backdrop of global warming, an increase in precipitation, decrease of evaporation, and degradation of the permafrost. However, variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than are mean values and thus, they have received greater attention. In this study, a trend analysis was performed to identify the change regulation of extreme weather conditions in the Selin Co basin, based on a meteorological data set of daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures from 1961-2012 obtained at two weather stations. The methods of a 10-year smoothing average, linear regression, correlation analysis, and a Mann-Kendall test were employed to delineate the rate of change, abrupt change points, statistical significance of the trends, and periodicities of extreme temperature indices. The results show both the maximum daily maximum temperature and the minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) exhibit an increasing trend over the study period, especially for TNn, which has the higher value of 1.10 ℃/10a. Extreme warm indices such as the minimum daily maximum temperature, percentage of days when the maximum temperature >90th percentile (TX90p), and percentage of days when the minimum temperature >90th percentile (TN90p), together with the growing season length (GSL), showed marked rates of increase of 0.24 ℃/10a, and 5.63, 10.0, 2.31 d/10a, respectively. However, the extreme cold indices such as the number of frost days, ice days, percentage of days when the maximum temperature <10th percentile (TX10p), percentage of days when the minimum temperature <10th percentile (TN10p), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) showed significant rates of decrease of -4.47, -5.63, -5.23, -11.20 d/10a, and -0.28 ℃/10a. Most of the range in the variation of extreme cold temperature indices in the basin is higher than that on a global, national, and Tibetan scale, especially for TN90p, which has the maximum magnitude of variation. On a decadal scale, the indices of TNn, TX90p, TN90p, and DTR increased, whereas the extreme cold indices and GSL decreased. Abrupt change analysis indicates that abrupt points can be found in each extreme cold index, occurring mainly after the mid-1980s. Expansion of the Selin Co Lake area is assumed to be related to the significant increase of minimum temperature. The corresponding extreme cold indices, TX10p and TN10p, are correlated negatively with the change in the Selin Co Lake area, whereas the TN90p and the annual mean temperature are correlated positively. The rise of the extreme warm indices and fall of the cold indices illustrate clearly that the climate is warming, which accelerates the retreat of valley glaciers, and the snow meltwater feeds the lake's expansion.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

杨志刚,杜军,林志强.1961-2012年西藏色林错流域极端气温事件变化趋势.生态学报,2015,35(3):613~621

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数: