Abstract:Mire, known as the ecosystems would be the most vulnerable to climate change, is widely distributed in the Northeastern (NE) China, and the NE China is one of the regions that would be mostly affected by the changing climates since the climate changes would mostly affect the area in higher latitudes. Therefore, studies of the spatial distributions of suitable habitats for mire in this region under future climate is obviously more important to conservation, restoration and mitigation among ecosystems, species distributions and climate changes. Based on the mire distribution data from the 1:4000000 Mire Map and 26 environmental factors in the NE China, the potential distributions of mire were predicted under the projected climate scenarios of current (1961-1990) and three future time-slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) through Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model as well as ArcGIS spatial analysis modules. The accuracy of predictions were accessed by the area under the curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and validation results showed that the predictions with MaxEnt model had a higher precision (mean AUC=0.826±0.005), and were credible and acceptable. The results for mire distribution showed that mire had a wide potential distribution range in the NE China, especially it mainly distributed in Great and Small Khingan Mountains and Sanjiang Plain under the current climate (based on the climate data from 1961-1990 years). However, the potential distribution area of mire decreased rapidly in NE China with changing climates since the new climate pattern would create new suitable habitat and make the currently suitable habitats would turn into unsuitable habitat for mire distribution, furthermore, the losing habitat rate was most higher than creating new habitat rate in this region under the changing climate. By 2011-2040 years, the current potential distribution area of mire reduced by 90.70%, the new suitable potential distribution area increased by 12.48%, the total potential distribution area of mire decreased by 78.22%. By 2041-2070 years, the current potential distribution area of mire reduced by 99.21%, the new suitable potential distribution area increased by only 3.23%, the total potential distribution area of mire decreased by 95.98%. By 2071-2100 years, the current potential distribution area of mire reduced by 99.80%, the new suitable potential distribution area increased by only 2.48%, the total potential distribution area of mire decreased 97.32%. As for spatial distribution, main distribution area of mire would shift from east part to west part at the longitude direction and shrink from the south and north part to central part of the region at latitude direction. By 2011-2040 years, the main potential distribution area of mire would shift to the northern part of Great Khingan Mountains, Songnen Plain, and Sanjiang Plain. By 2041-2070 years, the main potential distribution area of mire shifted to Hulunbeir Plateau, Songnen Plain, and Sanjiang Plain. By 2071-2100 years, the main potential distribution area of mire shifted to Hulunbeir Plateau and Songnen Plain. These results would provide important basis for making scientific management of mire and developing the measure for restoration mire and mitigating future climatic change in NE China.