基于模糊认知图的生态风险管理探究
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山西大学黄土高原研究所,山西大学环境与资源学院,山西大学环境与资源学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(41101558,41271513);山西省研究生创新项目(020752901007)


Exploration of ecosystem risk management based on fuzzy cognitive map
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Institute of Loess Plateau,Shanxi University,Department of environment and resources,Shanxi University,Department of environment and resources,Shanxi University

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    摘要:

    生态风险管理具有不稳定性和不确定性,如何获取和调整不同利益群体对于生态风险和环境管理的看法并把它们定量表示出来、协调其中存在的冲突是生态系统管理亟待解决的问题。以煤矿区生态系统为研究对象,探讨了模糊认知图方法在获取利益相关方认知上的应用,并基于模糊关联矩阵,采用神经网络模型进行不同生态风险管理政策的情景模拟。研究结果为:大气污染和水环境破坏是所有利益相关者最关注的问题,国家政策是最核心的变量;不同利益相关者之间的不同点在于,管理者较多地关注国家政策及煤矿开采给国家带来的财政收入与居民生活水平的提高,而当地居民和矿工更关注自己的身体健康和人身安全。通过对煤矿区生态风险管理的政策模拟,可看出要减少大气污染,政府要加大对企业的治理力度,从保护耕地、林地,增加植被覆盖度,提高生物多样性出发;另外,如果政府制定相关政策提高了次级产物的利用率,矿区生态系统的风险也会大大降低。结果表明:模糊认知图方法用在生态系统管理中,可以真实反映利益相关者对生态系统的风险认知以及风险之间的因果联系强度。神经网络模型用在生态风险管理的情景分析中,可以帮助矿区生态风险管理者选择不同的方案以达到管理目标,为在煤矿区建立资源、环境和人口协调发展的生态环境管理机制奠定了基础,从而为生态风险管理提供了一个新视角。

    Abstract:

    There are the natures of instability and uncertainty in ecological risk management. Each stakeholder's cognition plays a crucial role in it. For this reason, the coal-mining environment managers need to choose appropriate measures to take stakeholders' interests in account in ecosystem management. But the crucial problems to be solved are how to get and adjust different stakeholders' perspectives on ecological risk and environmental management, and how to quantify their perspectives, and coordinate their conflicts. This research paper focused on coal-mining ecosystem, explored the application of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) on getting stakeholders' perspectives and graph theory indices on quantifying them, and simulated the different ecological risk management policy options using FCM-based artificial neural network (ANN). The Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping was applied to develop a participatory environmental management model for the typical coal-mining area in Yangquan. The ANN was used to conduct simulations combining the initial state of variables and the adjacency matrix getting from the social condensed map, The results showed that different stakeholders' cognition were distinctly different, managers emphasized national policy and economic interests brought by coal-mining activity, while engineers stressed living standard more, whereas mine workers and local residents paid more attention to the work's safety and their health condition. But it is noteworthy that‘air pollution’and ‘water damage’were the variables which were mentioned by almost all of them. It revealed the severity of ‘air pollution’and‘water damage’. The most central variables in the social condensed map were‘national policy’and‘health’, as well as in the four stakeholder groups. The simulations of policy option reflected that when local governments and enterprises make management decisions in coal-mining ecosystem, they should place an emphasis on protecting farmland, increasing vegetation coverage, improving energy efficiency and recycling waste so as to decrease air pollution, protect water environment and reduce resources waste. It is helpful for learning how different choices affect the coal-mining ecosystem. The results revealed that FCM analysis and ANN simulations could provide useful information for the development of environmental management planning. FCM analysis could help us to understand the varying attitudes among stakeholder groups as they considered environmental issues affecting the ecosystem. In addition, the policy option simulations based on ANN can help the coal-mining environmental managers to choose proper measures to achieve management goals, so as to lay the foundation of ecological environment management mechanism that can harmonize the development of resource, environment and population. Throughout the full text, the FCM method has the advantages: (1) Comparing with the traditional questionnaires, semi-structured interview respects more individual's perception and leaves more space to interviewees. (2) Comparing with the traditional evaluating factor system, the FCM method can get a more accurate causal relationship among each factor. (3) Getting knowledge easily, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, and expressing cognition and inference well. (4) Getting multi-stakeholders' FCMs and comparing their different perceptions is more convenient. Moreover, this paper expanded the environment management research methods and provided some new ideas and approaches with regional ecological risk management theoretically.

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苏超,张红,梁迅.基于模糊认知图的生态风险管理探究.生态学报,2014,34(20):5993~6001

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