基于遗传算法的渔情预报HSI建模与智能优化
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上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;;大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;;大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;;大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;;大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心

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国家自然科学基金(41276156);国家发改委产业化专项(2159999);上海市自然科学基金面上项目(13ZR1419300);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金新教师类项目(20123104120002);上海市一流学科水产学(A类)共同资助


HSI modeling and intelligent optimization for fishing ground forecasts using a genetic algorithm
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College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,,

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    摘要:

    鱼类栖息地适宜性指数模型(HSI)基于鱼类分布与海洋环境之间存在的非线性关系而构建。然而,海洋环境因子之间存在着传统方法无法消除的相关性,导致获取的HSI参数较难准确表达环境因子与渔场之间的复杂关系。基于遗传算法(GA),自动消除海洋环境因子之间的相关性,构建了一种通用的鱼类HSI建模与智能优化框架(GeneHSI)。GeneHSI框架的核心是HSI建模空间向遗传算法空间的映射以及GA适应度函数的构建。该函数构建的思想是HSI预测的渔场概率与商业捕捞获取的渔场概率之间的累计误差值达到最小化。GeneHSI由待解问题构建、GA初始化和GA优化策略3部分组成。利用随机生成的标准化海洋环境数据与渔场概率数据,验证了GeneHSI模型框架的有效性。研究表明,GeneHSI能够有效优化HSI的建模并能自动获取HSI参数。不同限制条件下,遗传算法获取的HSI具有较大的差异,其中一般优化策略下获取的HSI参数最差;不等式、等式和上下界条件下,GeneHSI优化过程显著地更加合理,因此获取的HSI参数也更准确。此外,100、1000、5000和10000样本量下的优化建模表明,GeneHSI具有处理海量样本数据的能力。

    Abstract:

    The construction of a habitat suitability index (HSI) model is a crucial problem in fishing ground forecasts. In general, the HSI model is established by estimating the relationship between marine environmental factors and fishing ground probabilities. However, the environmental factors observed by remote sensing technology and commercial fishing investigations are usually highly correlated, and conventional methods such as the continued product model, minimum model, maximum model, arithmetic mean model, and geometric mean model cannot eliminate the harmful effects caused by the correlation of fishing data. As a result, it is difficult for them to capture the complex relations between environmental factors and fishing ground probabilities. Based on the widely used intelligent optimization method of genetic algorithms (GAs), this paper presents a general framework called GeneHSI for HSI modeling and intelligent optimization. Most importantly, the GeneHSI framework can remove the harmful effects of correlation, allowing the automatic retrieval and optimization of the HSI parameters. The core of GeneHSI modeling is the construction of a fitness function. This function was built by projecting the logistic regression-based HSI space to that of a GA, and is used to guide the optimization process of GeneHSI. Specifically, the fundamental concept of the projection is to minimize accumulative errors between the computed ground probabilities and the observed probabilities converted from commercial fishing data. The proposed GeneHSI framework is composed of three elements. These are the construction of the problem to be solved, the initialization of the GA, and the optimization strategy of the GA. The validation and effectiveness of the GeneHSI framework have been demonstrated using simulation data, that is, randomly generated normalized marine environmental factors and fishing ground probabilities range from 0 to 1. Research shows that the GeneHSI framework is effective and efficient in retrieving and optimizing HSI parameters for fishing ground forecasts. Because of the stochastic characteristics of GAs, however, there is a high requirement for modelers and scientists to better control the implementation of the GeneHSI framework. The HSI parameters retrieved by the GeneHSI framework vary under different constraints. Such constraints used in GAs commonly include linear inequalities and linear equality constraints on the underlying relations between marine environmental factors and fishing ground probabilities, as well as constraints on the bounds of HSI parameters. Compared with the results under optimization strategies using these constraints, the results under a general optimization strategy are inferior in that the GeneHSI framework cannot obtain a good match between the best-fitness and mean-fitness curves. In theory, the fitness value is the accumulative error of the GeneHSI model; hence, a smaller value indicates a better result. However, a good convergence process does not necessarily lead to a minimum fitness value amongst fitness functions under different constraints. In this paper, therefore, an evaluation of the convergence process, instead of a minimum fitness value, is considered the fundamental standard for the assessment of a good set of HSI parameters. In addition, experience and professional knowledge are required for an exact assessment of the HSI parameters. Overall, the above constraints, especially those on the parameter bounds, greatly help the optimization of the GeneHSI framework to retrieve better HSI parameters. In addition, the implementation of the GeneHSI framework with 100, 1 000, 5 000, and 10 000 samples demonstrates its strong capability for processing the mass data of fishing grounds. It is expected that the GeneHSI framework can enrich the modeling methods and theories of fishing grounds, and hence guide the application of intelligent optimization methods in fishing ground HSI modeling.

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冯永玖,陈新军,杨晓明,高峰.基于遗传算法的渔情预报HSI建模与智能优化.生态学报,2014,34(15):4333~4346

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