Abstract:Modeling spatial relationships between Robinia pseudoacacia flowering date and air temperature is crucial for revealing the ecological mechanism of spatial patterns of honey plant phenology and knowing well the right time of bee keeping production. Using Robinia pseudoacacia phenology data of beginning of flowering (BF), full flowering (FF) and end of flowering (EF) at 26 stations of eastern China's warm temperate zone during 1986 to 2005, we established daily mean temperature-based multi-year mean and yearly spatial phenology models to simulate multi-year mean and yearly spatial patterns of Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates, and validated these models by extensive spatial extrapolation. Then, we substituted gridded daily mean temperature data with the spatial resolution of 8 km into the multi-year mean and yearly spatial phenology models, and obtained spatial patterns of multi-year and yearly Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates over continuous geographic coverage during 1986 to 2005. Moreover, we attempted to project suitable routes of migratory beekeeping within the study area. The results show that spatial patterns of multi-year mean and yearly temperatures within the optimum length period control spatial patterns of multi-year mean and yearly Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates, respectively in eastern China's warm temperate zone during 1986 to 2005. Spatial series of multi-year mean Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates correlate negatively with spatial series of multi-year mean temperature within the optimum length period (P < 0.001) at the 26 stations. The multi-year mean spatial phenology models explained 87% of variance in BF date with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.5 days, 86% of variance in FF date with a RMSE of 2.7 days, and 77% of variance in EF date with a RMSE of 4.1 days. Similarly, spatial series of Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates correlate negatively with spatial series of daily mean temperature within the optimum length period in each year (P < 0.05) at the 26 stations. The explained variances of yearly spatial phenology models to BF, FF and EF dates are between 44%-94%, 57%-92% and 39%-84%, respectively. The mean RMSEs of yearly simulation of BF, FF and EF dates are 3.9 days, 4.0 days and 5.4 days, respectively. The predicted multi-year mean Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates over continuous geographic coverage show a delayed spatial progression from south to north, and from plains to hills and mountains. Therefore, migratory beekeeping can be implemented along with west, middle and east routes in eastern China's warm temperate zone with durations between 40 day and 50 days. In addition, the predicted linear trends in BF, FF and EF dates over continuous geographic coverage from 1986 to 2005 indicate a dominant advancement and the areas with significant advancement account for 78%, 26% and 32% of the total area, respectively.