主要气候因子对麦棉两熟棉花产量的影响
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中国农业科学院棉花研究所,中国农业科学院棉花研究所,中国农业科学院棉花研究所,中国农业科学院棉花研究所,中国农业科学院棉花研究所,中国农业科学院棉花研究所

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中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资助(SJA0908)


Analysis of key climatic factors influencing on seed cotton yield in cotton-wheat double cropping
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Cotton Research Institute; Chinese Academy of Agri. Sciences,,,,,Cotton Research Institute; Chinese Academy of Agri. Sciences

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    摘要:

    采用灰色关联度分析法和逐步回归分析法,分析了麦棉两熟种植棉花生育期间主要气候因子与籽棉产量的关系。灰色关联度分析法结果表明,黄淮海棉区棉花产量在年度间的差异主要受积温的影响,4-10月份≥20℃积温与籽棉产量的关联系数0.4463;其次为日照时数,关联系数0.4052,第三是降雨量,关联系数0.3133。在棉花生长的4-10月期间,以8月、9月的日照时数和8月份≥20℃的积温对产量的影响最大,关联系数分别达到0.7201、0.7116和0.7042。逐步回归分析法结果同样表明,积温是影响产量的主要因子,且为正效应;而降水量对产量的影响为负效应;得出的回归方程(P=0.0007598,R2=0.7477)可试用于黄淮棉区两熟籽棉产量的预测和预报。

    Abstract:

    The gray relational grade and stepwise regression analysis were conducted to analyze the relationship between seed cotton yield and major climate factors, including accumulated temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours, in cotton-wheat double cropping system in Huanghuaihai cotton region from 1993 to 2010. The results indicated that the yield variations among different years were mainly influenced by accumulated temperature above 20℃, and followed by sunshine hours and rainfall from April to October, with the correlation coefficients of 0.4463, 0.4052 and 0.3133, respectively. During the growing season,the yield was mainly affected by sunshine hours in August, sunshine hours in September and accumulated temperature above 20℃ in August. The correlation coefficients were 0.7201, 0.7116 and 0.7042, respectively. The stepwise regression analysis also showed that the accumulated temperature was the key factor positively affected the yield. In contrast, rainfall showed a negative effect. The regressive equation (P=0.0007598,R2=0.7477)can be applied to predict the seed cotton yield of cotton-wheat double cropping system in Huanghuaihai cotton region.

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韩迎春,王国平,范正义,李亚兵,冯璐,毛树春.主要气候因子对麦棉两熟棉花产量的影响.生态学报,2013,33(10):3185~3191

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