基于系统动力学的雏菊世界模型气候控制敏感性分析
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地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学

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国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41030535);十二五科技支撑资助项目(2011BAC07B01)


Sensitivity analysis of climate control in the Daisyworld model based on system dynamics
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State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing Normal University

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    摘要:

    Lovelock于20世纪70年代提出了著名的盖娅假说,认为地球是一个由生物和非生物环境组成的"超级有机体",有能力调节自身的气候和化学组成,使之适合于生物的生存。盖娅假说遭到了生物学家,尤其是新达尔文主义者的强烈批评,认为它是目的论;随后,Lovelock通过雏菊世界模型论证了该假说。模型中的黑雏菊和白雏菊通过反射较少或较多的太阳光来调节地球的温度。基于雏菊世界模型,通过假设不同的初始条件——不同初始面积分配和不同的太阳光反射率组合,运用系统动力学对雏菊世界的温度调节能力进行了敏感性分析。结果证明,既使初始条件有差异,雏菊世界仍能够通过自我调节机制调节系统稳定时的星球温度,达到最适合生物生存的温度。雏菊世界模型对于初始面积分配、光照反射率组合条件不敏感。最后,雏菊世界模型的优点在于系统分析思想和以及对地球系统的简化,但是随着人类活动对地球系统影响的日益显著,建议模型应包含更多的环境、生物变量以及反馈关系和人类活动因素,将盖娅系统融入到自然-人类耦合的大系统中。

    Abstract:

    The Gaia hypothesis, proposed by James Lovelock in 1970s, claims that the earth is a superorganism consisting of both living organisms and a non-living environment. More specifically, the earth itself has the ability to regulate climate and chemistry, making environments on earth suitable for living organisms. The Gaia hypothesis was strongly criticized by biologists, especially Darwinists. In replying to the criticism, Lovelock and Watson developed a mathematical model called Daisyworld to test the hypothesis. The Daisyworld is a planet orbiting around the sun, which is populated by two different types of plants, black daisies and white daisies. The color of the daisies influences the albedo of the planet in a way that black daisies absorb more sunlight and warm the planet, while white daisies reflect more sunlight and cool the planet. Based on this model, we analyzed the temperature-regulating ability in the Daisyworld model under various initial conditions using the methods of system dynamics. The initial conditions that proposed in this paper included three sets of initial area distribution patterns between black and white daisies and three sets of sunlight albedo combinations of the two daisies. The software package we used here is Stella 9.0.2 developed by ISEE System, Inc. The simulation results showed that, although the initial conditions of the Daisyworld model were different, all temperatures, as the system settled down, eventually reached at 21.55 ℃, a temperature close to the optimum for daisy growth. From the results we know that the Daisyworld model is insensitive to the initial conditions such as area distribution patterns and albedo combinations. While the temperature-regulating ability is insensitive to albedo combinations of the two daisies, our results showed that albedo combinations can affect the time length that the Daisyworld model needs to reach at a stable state. That is, when the albedo difference between black daisy and white daisy is smaller, the time length will be longer. Based on the simulation process and results, we further discussed the advantages and disadvantages of the Daisyworld model. We argued that simplification and systematic analysis are the advantages of the model. Through a simple feedback relationship between organisms (i.e. black and white daisies) and environment factors (i.e. temperature), the natural selection and competition between two daisies could lead to a balance of populations that tends to favor planetary habitability, without human intervention. Because of its simplification and systematic analysis, the Daisyworld model is now applied all over the world in both system engineering and environmental science. It inspires the researchers who are not used to system thinking, and changes their thinking habits forever. But this simplification has some disadvantage in the Daisyworld model. Compared with the real complicated earth system, this model is obviously too simple, which leads to a simple result. In order to get a more scientific result, we suggests that the model should include more detailed information of the earth such as more environmental variables, biological variables, feedback relationships, and human activities. The Gaia system should eventually be integrated into the more advanced Nature-Human Coupled System.

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陈海滨,唐海萍.基于系统动力学的雏菊世界模型气候控制敏感性分析.生态学报,2013,33(10):3177~3184

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