中国水稻生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性
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中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 北京,中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 北京,中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 北京,中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 北京,中国农业科学院国际合作局

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973资助项目(2012CB9559-04, 2010CB951500-04); 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171093); 国家科技支撑课题(2012BAC19B01)


Sensitivity and vulnerability of China's rice production to observed climate change
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Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development for Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development for Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development for Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,,

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    摘要:

    有效的适应措施需要了解两类基础信息,一是农业生产所面临的各种气候变异风险,二是作物产量对潜在气候变异风险的反应及其机制。评价作物生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性,可以在时间上和空间上揭示气候变化的趋势及作物产量对其的反应,从而为适应行动的全面开展提供基础信息。通过分析1981-2007年水稻生育期3个气候因子(平均温度、日较差、辐射)的变化对水稻产量的影响,评估我国水稻生产对这3个气候因子变化的敏感性和脆弱性及其区域分布状况。结果表明,1981-2007年间我国大部分水稻产区生育期内3个气候因子均发生了明显变化,存在着气候变异风险,其中以最高温的变化最普遍和明显,导致水稻生产中高温热害风险增加。部分区域水稻产量变化与单一气象因子的变化存在着显著的线性相关,这些地区气候因子的变化可以一定程度地解释水稻产量变化趋势,其中产量变化对辐射变化最敏感。当水稻生育期内平均温度上升1℃、日较差升高1℃、辐射下降10%时,我国部分地区水稻产量随之发生了相应的变化,其中辐射降低导致我国水稻生产的脆弱面积最大,其次为日较差。受3种气象因子变化趋势的综合影响,约有30%的水稻产区对1981-2007年的气候变化趋势敏感,少部分地区表现为脆弱,但水稻主产区受到的影响不大,且在东北地区还集中表现出产量增加的趋势,为我国水稻发展提供了契机。

    Abstract:

    Effective agricultural adaptation to climate change needs two pieces of information, the climatic risks posed on crop growth, and yield responses to the risks and associated mechanisms. Assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of crop production to observed climate change is able to produce such information, facilitates the investment of the limited adaptation resources. Use the relationships between changes in rice yield and climatic variables and their spatial variations, we identified the sensitivity and vulnerability of China's rice production to observed climate change (1981-2007). The growing-season mean climatic variables exhibited significant changes during 1961-2007, indicating the possible climatic risks for rice growth. The increase in day time temperature was most widespread and obvious, suggesting increased risks of heat stresses. The relationships between rice yield and the climatic variables were significant in some rice areas, with the largest percent of the rice area showed yield sensitivity to changes in diurnal temperature range. With a 1℃ warming in growing-season temperature, 1 ℃ increase in diurnal temperature range, and a 10% decrease in radiation, much of the rice areas showed depressed yield to these changes. The area with yield vulnerability was largest to the change in radiation, and second largest to the change in diurnal temperature range. The combined effects of the observed trends of the three climatic variables caused significant change in roughly 30% of the rice areas, but with a small portion showed yield vulnerability. In addition, the negative effects were not pronounced in the principal rice areas, such as Yangtze River Basin, especially in northeast China, the observed climatic trends substantially increased rice yield during the past decades.

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熊伟,杨婕,吴文斌,黄丹丹,曹阳.中国水稻生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性.生态学报,2013,33(2):509~518

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