中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素
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中国科学院生态环境研究中心,中国科学院生态环境研究中心,中国科学院生态环境研究中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(71033005,70873122)


The carbon emissions embodied in Chinese household consumption by the driving factors
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Research Center for Eco-Environment Sciences, Chinese Academy of Science,Research Center for Eco-Environment Sciences, Chinese Academy of Science,Research Center for Eco-Environment Sciences, Chinese Academy of Science

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    摘要:

    应用基于投入产出技术的生命周期评价(EIO-LCA)核算了1997、2000、2002、2005和2007年5a的中国居民消费隐含的二氧化碳排放量,发现其呈现增加趋势。2007年达到18.53亿t,相当于1997年的1.61倍,年平均增长4.89%. 其次采用结构分解分析(SDA)分析了碳排放效率变化、经济内在结构变迁、消费结构转变、人均消费水平变化、城市化进程和人口总量变化等六项因素对碳排放总量变化的驱动作用。研究发现碳排放效率因素和人均消费水平变化是驱动碳排放变化的两大主要力量,并且作用相反。碳排放效率的持续提高,很大程度上缓解了居民消费的隐含碳排放急剧增加的趋势,是减缓碳排放量的主要因素;而人均消费水平的迅速提高成为推动碳排放增加的主要力量,是推动碳排放增加的主要因素。

    Abstract:

    Promoting transition to the low-carbon consumption is one of the main tasks of building low-carbon society. Using scientific methods for consumption-related carbon emissions accounting is the basis and prerequisite for low-carbon consumption research to account the consumption-related carbon emissions with a scientific methods. Life cycle assessment (LCA), which can calculate the total environmental impact of the whole production process with a new system perspective, is considered as a suitable method on environmental impact evaluation of household consumption. But the traditional process-oriented LCA requires a clear definition of system boundary, and focuses on the environmental impact within the system boundary. However, many LCA case studies showed that the environmental impact occurred outside the system boundaries can not be always ignored. Subsequently the EIO-LCA approach is proposed (Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment), which is a combination of input-output analysis and LCA concept. The new EIO-LCA method overcame the natural defects of the traditional LCA. This paper studied carbon dioxide emissions which were embodied in Chinese household consumption in the years of 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, and found out that it increased quickly over time. The result shows that the carbon emissions in 2007 reached 1.85 billion tons, equivalent to 1.61 times in 1997. This upward trend in emissions is driven by a variety of factors. It is assumed that there were six factors, including carbon emission intensity, internal structure of the economy, consumption structure, consumption level per capita, urbanization and population in this study. Then the impact strength of these six factors is evaluated with the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method. SDA is a special index decomposition analysis with an input-output method. SDA is often used to analyze the contribution of economic growth, economic structural change and technological progress and other factors to changes in economic or environmental indicators. The result indicated that the factors of emission intensity and consumption level per capita were two main contrary forces. The emission intensity was the main force that slowed down the increase of carbon emissions, while the consumption level per capita was the main force to radically promote the increase of carbon emissions. Changes in consumption structure, urbanization and population growth have continued to promote the increasing of carbon emissions. Leontief inverse matrix, representing the internal structure of the national economy, has a more complex role, and shows different roles at different times. These six factors played different roles in each sector. Industry of production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water, chemical industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, metal smelting and rolling processing industry and food manufacturing and tobacco processing were the five major departments that these factors relatively had strong impact on. In the next few decades, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure optimization will be the primary means to achieve low-carbon economy. At the same time, industrial restructuring should be speed up and the consumption structure should be optimized to provide an efficient way for construction of China's low-carbon economy. The five main sectors, which the six factors relatively had strong impact on, should be the main targets of technological innovation and policy control.

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姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松.中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素.生态学报,2011,31(19):5632~5637

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