未来10年黄土高原气候变化对农业和生态环境的影响
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中国气象科学研究院,中国气象科学研究院,中国气象科学研究院,甘肃省庆阳市农业科学研究院

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全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划资助项目(2010CB951302)


The impacts of future climatic change on agricultures and eco-environment of Loess Plateau in next decade
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Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. Beijing 100081;China,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. Beijing 100081;China,,

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    摘要:

    利用区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2和B2气候情景及基准气候时段逐日资料,选择生态环境极其脆弱的黄土高原为研究区,分析了未来10a黄土高原气候变化特征及其对主要农作物和生态环境的影响。结果表明,未来10a,黄土高原光热资源增加,降水量减少。增温将对冬小麦和春玉米产量影响较大,对马铃薯产量的影响程度可能较小,但降水量减少对主要农作物的产量都有较大影响。在主要作物品种不发生较大变化的前提下,作物生育期太阳辐射和积温增加可能导致生育期需水量增加10%-15%,冬小麦、春玉米和马铃薯的播期分别延迟或提前1-3d,收获期提前1-2d,生育期缩短3-5d,可能引起冬小麦和春玉米气候产量下降50%-100%。未来10a,降水量减少可能导致草地盖度的增幅下降和人工林地稀疏化,引起黄土高原片状水力侵蚀程度下降。但突发性暴雨洪水和土地利用现状改变可能增强切沟溯源冲蚀能力,增加了黄土高原水土流失和农田及道路被冲毁的风险。

    Abstract:

    By using the daily data derived from the Regional Climate Model-PRECIS on the climate scenario of A2 and B2 and on the base-line climatic period, the characteristics and the impacts of future climatic change on agricultures and eco-environment of Loess Plateau in the next decade were analyzed. The result showed that in the next decade, the solar radiation and accumulated temperature are going to increase, but, the precipitation is going to reduce. The increase of air temperature will maybe more impact both on winter wheat and summer maize, while less impact probably on potato. The yield of major staple crops, however, will be impacted largely by the decrease of precipitation. On the condition of the breeds not to be changed, the increase of solar radiation and accumulated temperature will likely induce increase of crop water requirement 10%-15%, sowing delay 1-3 days of winter wheat, early sowing 1-3 days of summer maize and potato, early harvest 1-2 days and decrease of duration 3-5 days of winter wheat, summer maize and potato, resulting in 50%-100% decline of climate yield both in winter wheat and potato. In the next decade, the coverage of grassland in Loess Plateau will reduce and the artificial forest density will decline. The decrease of precipitation and vegetation change will probably cause decline of sheet erosion degree. However, the probability of head-cut gully erosion will increase because of extreme event of precipitation and land use/cover change. The risk of water and soil loss is increasing in Loess Plateau.

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俄有浩,施茜,马玉平,郭建平,肖正璐.未来10年黄土高原气候变化对农业和生态环境的影响.生态学报,2011,31(19):5542~5552

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