基于作物模型的低温冷害对我国东北三省玉米产量影响评估
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重庆市气象科学研究所,中国气象科学研究院,中国气象科学研究院,中国农业大学资源与环境学院,中国农业大学资源与环境学院

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国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAD32B01);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)


Impact evaluation of low temperature to yields of maize in Northeast China based on crop growth model
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Chongqing Institute of Meteorological sciences,Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences,Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University

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    摘要:

    以东北三省玉米低温冷害为研究对象,对作物生长过程模式WOFOST进行适当改进,同时对模型在区域上的适应性进行分析、检验,然后利用改进的作物模型实现低温冷害对玉米影响定量分析和动态评估。以1961-2006年共46a平均气温驱动下的模拟产量作为正常年份的产量水平,当年实际气温驱动下的模拟产量跟平均气温驱动下的模拟产量对比,以减产率和气象条件作为灾害严重程度划分的标准,利用数值模拟试验,确定导致减产的主要气象因子及其量值,进而确定农业气象灾害评估指标,在此基础上,进行区域低温冷害影响评估,包括历年典型低温冷害年份影响评估和年代际影响评估。从年代模拟结果来看,近50a来各年代冷害分布大致规律均表现为北部大于南部、东部大于西部地区,即表现为由东北至西南方向呈递减的趋势,冷害造成玉米减产面积及冷害等级各有差别。评估结果基本上可以较好地反应历史实际情况且与前人已有研究成果相一致。

    Abstract:

    the choice of low temperature disaster to th maize of three provinces in Northeast China was the study aresa, the crop growth model WOFOST was improved appropriately, analysed and tested in regional scale, and achieves the quantitative analysis and dynamic evaluation of low temperature disaster to th maize.The yields simulated under the condition of average temperatur 1961-2006 is the usual standard,the yields simulated under the condition of actual temperature in relevant year,by contrasting those two yields to decide the yield reduce rate. the yield reduce rate and meteorological condition were divided to the standard of serious degree for low temperature disaster. By experiment for numerical simulation, to determine the main meteorological factor and its value for causing the yield reduce, furthermore to determine the evaluation indexes of low temperature disaster. Based on the evaluation indexes, the impact evaluation was carried out in study area, the impact evaluation for disaster including typical years and ages. From the simulation results, the spatial distribution of low temperature disaster is decreasing by degrees from Northeast to Southwest in each decade in recent 50a, but it is different in the areas and grades of low temperature disaster. The evaluation results could be response the historical actual situation,and is consistent as the pre-production.

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张建平,王春乙,赵艳霞,杨晓光,王靖.基于作物模型的低温冷害对我国东北三省玉米产量影响评估.生态学报,2012,32(13):4132~4138

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