条件价值评估的有效性与可靠性改善——理论、方法与应用
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江苏教育厅"青蓝工程"学术带头人基金项目(2009);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(20100471344);江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2010JDXM017)


Improving validity and reliability of contingent valuation method through reducing biases and errors: theory, method and application
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    摘要:

    CVM可靠性、有效性改善源于CVM范围效应、WTA与WTP之差、引导技术选择、假想偏差、信息效应、策略偏差和次序效应等7种偏差和误差的降低。以长江流域南京段生态系统恢复条件价值评估为例,对CVM有效性、可靠性改善的理论和方法进行了应用,具体包括:(1)选用WTP而非WTA的估值方式;(2)选用二分式选择法作为问卷的引导技术,并利用开放式和支付卡式问卷进行二次预调查以获得二分式选择问卷的核心估值;(3)以图文并茂的方式向受访者介绍调查背景,并用受访者更熟悉的"长江水质恢复到可游泳水平"替代所要评估的环境物品"长江流域生态系统恢复";(4)分析受访者意图以区分抗议性回答和真实零支付;(5)采用分层随机抽样的方式选取并发放大样本;(6)调查中采用面对面的方式并培训调查员;(7)选用切实可行但强制性高的支付工具;(8)利用中值法而非均值法估计WTP分布函数;(9)选择对数模型而非水平估算模型测算WTP值。综合利用上述方法所测得的南京市居民对长江流域生态系统恢复的支付意愿为270.7元/(户· a),此研究结果可为南京市制定"十二五"水价改革方案提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The criticism of Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) resolved mainly from two aspects: the validity and the reliability of the results, and the effects of various biases and errors. The recent studies addressed the validity and reliability of CVM result were arising out of different kinds of biases and errors, which included the disparities between WTA(willingness to accept) and WTP (willingness to pay), strategic effect, scope effect, elicitation effect, hypothesis effect, sequencing effect and information effect etc. A set of comprehensive methods to reduce biases and errors was used to evaluate the economic benefits of ecosystem restoration of Yangtze River Basin in Nanjing area in this paper. The nine operating approaches were (i) to apply the WTP format rather than WTA format to elicit the individuals preference in the survey to avoid the biases of income effect, and to substitute effect and endowment effect as well; (ii) to take dichotomous choice questionnaire (DCQ) as a questionnaire-guided methodology to minimize the strategic bias and obtain a powerful goodness-of-fit tests, in addition, to use both open questionnaire and payment-card questionnaire as pre-survey methodologies to provide lower and upper valuation boundary estimates for DCQ survey, and the lower bid was selected almost 100% acceptance while the upper level was almost 100% rejection; (iii) to define the evaluation object of "ecosystem restoration of Yangtze-river Basin " as a familiar, specific and clearly understanding of "water quality improvement", and to pretest the photographs of swimming in describing the degreed of water quality improvement, so the part-whole problem ( scope bias) would be minimized where respondents have the experience of valuing the good in question;(iv) to focus on individuals' intention rather than attitudes toward their future payment behavior, to analyze the respondents' intention to determine whether their answers really signified zero WTP or made in jest or protest, and to elicit the reasons for yes/no answers for the valuation question; (v) a survey of stratified random sample of 300 used in open questionnaire, the same size in payment-card questionnaire, and a larger sample of 1700 in DCQ questionnaire. All the sample sizes were significant; (vi) The trained investigators undertook the individuals by personal interviews rather than mail survey and telephone interviewing; (vii) to chose tax and higher-water-price as the realistic, plausible, appropriate and forced payment vehicle, and to remind the respondents that their choice would be the base for Nanjing's 12th five-year urban water price reform plan, which could reduce the moral bias significantly; (viii) The distribution function of WTP was made by median-estimation model in stead of mean-estimation model, because the former model had better robustness and underlying the economic implication that the WTP for a good was constringed by income; (ix) to combine double-bounded DCQ rather than single-bounded DCQ, log-log model rather than logic model to estimate the WTP value, because double-bounded DCQ was statistically more efficient than the single-bounded DCQ, and log-log model resulted in higher validity and reliability. The individual WTP elicited in this study was 270.7¥ RMB per household per year. The result provides a scientific base for making the Nanjing's 12th five-year urban water price reform plan.

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蔡志坚,杜丽永,蒋瞻.条件价值评估的有效性与可靠性改善——理论、方法与应用.生态学报,2011,31(10):2915~2923

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