The core goal of Ecological Security is to have Eco-system Health Services and construct sustainable Ecological Landscape Security Pattern. Ecological Health Evaluation is a form for reflecting the status of Ecological Security, Costanza and the descendants think that evaluation standards of Ecosystem Health include: vigor, organizational ability, resilience, maintenance of ecosystem services, management options, the reduction of the external input, the influence of neighboring system and human health and so on, and vigor, organizational ability, resilience of which are the three most important aspect. So, based on the principle of structure and function of Ecological System, it is valuable by using Ecological Health theory for the study of Ecological System Security. Especially, at present, the evolution relationship between Ecological Security Pattern and Agricultural Productive Force has been one of the hot topics of Ecology in arid areas.
After many years of large-scale water conservancy and irrigation, the amount of cultivated land increased rapidly and Agricultural productivity Force have been greatly improved in Manas River basin. But the notable economic achievements are depending on water resources highly, which occurs series of ecological and environmental problems. As we all know, the Manas River Basin is a system of mountain-Oasis-Desert (MODS) structure typically according its geographical Characteristics, so, we can divide the basin into four ecological zones to analyses the Ecological Security condition in every Ecological Zones for the past 30 years; make the research of Ecological Health Evaluation by using the amended Costanza previous model from the who river basin, and analyses the evolution relationship between Ecological Security Pattern and Agricultural Productivity Force.
The Study show that: (1) for the past 30 years, the changes of the index of Ecological Security Evaluation for 4 Ecological Zones are as follows: the index of Upper-stream Mountain Area decreased 0.13, from safer range to pre-warning range; the index of Middle-stream Urban Area increased 0.09, from pre-warning range to safer range; the index of Middle and down-stream Agricultural Area decreased 0.19, from pre-warning range to moderate-warning range;the index of Down-stream desertification Area decreased 0.14, the state on ecological safety were on the decline in the pre-warning range; Expect for the Middle-stream Urban Area, the state of ecological security in Upper-stream Mountain Area、Middle and down-stream Agricultural Area、 Down-stream desertification Area all decreased, especially in Middle and down-stream Agricultural Area, Ecological Environment degrades most seriously. The index of vigor、organizational ability、resilience all decreased, The index of vigor decreased 0.14, the index of organizational ability decreased 0.11, the index of resilience decreased 0.17; the index of comprehensive evaluation on Ecological Health of basin decreased 0.13, from the health state to general state, and is close to unhealthy state, which indicated that the state on Ecological Safety were on the decline obvious for past 30 years.(2) Agricultural Productivity Force have been greatly developed in Manas River Basin for the past 30 years, but which is undergone at the cost of large-scale exploitation of water resources and destruction of Ecological Environment. the cotton are planted extensively,which were led to the consumption of agricultural water almost reaching 90% of average annual amount of water, the groundwater level above decreased 10 meters in Oasis edge, the utilizing of basin water resources has reached by the greatest extent; In addition, there have been abominable influence on the quality land in that long-term large scale cultivation of single crops, the soil of basin have been hardened 、impervious and Stalinization; using large scale of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural plastic film caused the white pollution and insect pest year by year. All of which indicated that the Ecological Environment has improved in some local areas, but degenerated in the whole River Basin;(3) for the past 30 years, Agricultural Productive Force improved apparent, but in fact it decreased potential, The change between Ecological Security Pattern and Agricultural Productive Force have changed in the same direction.The improved Agricultural Productive Force were at the cost of destroying Ecological Environment, which are not beneficial to Ecological Environment and sustainable development of agriculture. Thus, in future, Manas River Basin economic development should be guided by the use of water resources scientifically, and control the scale of oasis development strictly, particularly proscribe wasteland into cultivation in the edge of desert.