河南生态足迹驱动因素的Hi_PLS分析及其发展对策
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国家自然科学基金项目(41001383);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(20090460533);中国科学院王宽诚博士后人才奖励基金项目(2010)


Hierarchical Partial Least Squares (Hi_PLS) model analysis of the driving factors of Henan's Ecological Footprint (EF) and its development strategy
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    摘要:

    生态足迹是用来评估可持续发展的指标之一,已经获得了广泛的关注。弄清楚生态足迹增长的重要驱动因素可以帮助我们设计出科学合理的区域可持续发展对策。目前,大多研究侧重在单方面或数个方面的驱动因素,将所有可能的驱动因素综合起来一块进行考虑的研究仍较少,并且,大多数的研究仍然是采用一些常规、普通的方法。基于此,递阶偏最小二乘(Hi_PLS)模型被引入用于该主题的研究,并且,经典偏最小二乘(PLS)模型也被运用以便获得结果供对照比较。具体实证过程中采集了1952-2006年我国河南省的社会、经济、人口及资源等方面共28个指标的数据。结果表明:①与经典PLS模型相比,Hi_PLS用于该主题的研究更加有效,结果解释起来也更加方便具体;②河南生态足迹增长的重要驱动因素按重要性大小可排序为:运输活动、人口增长活动、经济活动、教育活动、医疗活动、邮电活动及投资活动,其中,前4大驱动因素的重要性又明显大于后3种驱动因素。不重要的驱动因素则来自于反映农业资源条件的农作物总播种面积指标。据此,提出了以下几点区域可持续发展对策:①注重提高运输效率,减少不必要和无效率的运输,如采用最节能降耗及最洁净的运输工具;②仍然必须严格控制人口数量的增长,坚持把计划生育定为基本国策并切实的贯彻执行;③积极调整经济增长方式,加快产业结构转型,尤其是促进高新科学技术产业的快速发展。

    Abstract:

    Ecological footprint (EF), as one of the sustainable development indicators, has received much attention. To find out the main driving factors of EF can help us design the scientific and rational countermeasures for regional sustainable development. At the present time, most methods in the studies selected single or several indicators, and few research comprehensively considered almost all the driving factors together. Another, most studies had still used some familiar or common methods. In this paper, a new method Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model (Hi_PLS), which roots from the classical Partial Least Squares model (PLS), was introduced to go on studying EF's drivers in detailed. Henan Province was taken as an example for the specific case study because it has the largest population and typical significance in China. The related social, economic, population and resources, etc. data (totally 28 indicators) from Henan Province during 1952-2006 were collected in the computing process. The results showed: firstly, compared with the classical PLS, the Hi_PLS was more effective and convenient, and clear to explain the results; secondly, the non-important driving factor of Henan Province's EF was the total sown area of farm crops, which was the behalf of Henan Province's agricultural resource status to some extent. All the other factors can be considered as the important driving factors, and they can be sorted as the following according to their importance: (1) transportation activities, (2) population growth, (3) economy activities, (4) education activities, (5) medical activities, (6) post activities and (7) investment activities. Moreover, the importance of the anterior four driving factors was significantly greater than that of the latter three ones. Thus, the first four could be grouped as the most important cores of driving factors. Based on this point, some specific countermeasures for Henan Province's sustainable development could be put forward as following. First, transportation activities were the most important driving factors of its EF. In the future, transportation efficiency should be improved and technological strength be enhanced, which including reducing unnecessary and inefficient transportation activities, such as passenger and cargo transport, and using the cleanest and most low-carbon transportation tools, etc. Second, population growth was the second of most important driving factors. In the next years, the rate of population growth must still be strictly controlled. The family planning policy should still be fixed as the basic state policy and be implemented without any exception. Third, the economic development activities in Henan Province coming from industries were the third most important driving factors of its EF. Thus, the fact indicated the economic growth efficiency in Henan Province should be enhanced. For example, the economic growth way or industry structure should be actively adjusted so that some high-tech, low-pollution and low-discharge industries could obtain rapid development. Last, education activities were the fourth important driving factors of Henan Province's EF. But education activities' increase could be considered as the result of population growth. Besides, the importance of the latter three driving factors was obviously smaller than that of the first four ones. Thus, no policy suggestion be put forward from education activities and the latter three factors.

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贾俊松.河南生态足迹驱动因素的Hi_PLS分析及其发展对策.生态学报,2011,31(8):2188~2195

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