甘南牧区草畜平衡优化方案与管理决策
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国家高技术研究发展专项(2007AA10Z232);教育部科技创新工程重大项目培育资金项目(708089);国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC53B01)资助


Optimization strategy and management decision-making in balancing forage and livestock in Gannan pastoral area
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    摘要:

    利用Matlab 7.9软件的多目标规划方法,以甘南牧区2008年及以前的草地畜牧业动态监测资料和社会经济发展调查统计数据为基础,以维持草畜平衡、优化畜群结构和保护草地生态环境为总目标,综合考虑牧区畜群结构优化、牧业生产目标、草畜动态平衡、区域社会经济收益状况和生态环境保护5个方面的约束条件,研究了规划期(2009-2011年)甘南牧区草地畜牧业发展的优化方案及管理对策,对比分析了减畜和增畜2种优化方案在畜群结构、牲畜总增率、净增率、商品率、出栏率、农牧民纯收益等方面的数量变化特征,提出甘南牧区草畜平衡优化方案及管理决策。研究结果表明,减畜优化方案是实现上述目标的根本途径。具体措施包括:1)适度调整牲畜数量,改良品种,优化畜群结构;2)调整农作物播种面积及结构,增加人工草地种植面积,提高补饲水平;3)稳定天然林草地面积,维护牧区生态环境; 4)增强畜牧业生产效益,提高出栏率;5)严格控制人口数量,加强国家政策调控机制。

    Abstract:

    Gannan pastoral area is not only an important animal husbandry production base in Gansu Province, but also one of the nation's major ethnic concentration areas. In recent years, the increasingly intensified degradation of grasslands in the Gannan pastoral area has been the "bottleneck" factor in restricting grassland animal husbandry and socio-economic development, and in the same time, it has become a very serious eco-environment problem. Therefore, it is important to further examine what might be the best strategy to balance grassland area and livestock number. This should play an important role to maintain the sustainable development in social and economic for the area. In this study, a multi-objective programming approach in Matlab 7.9 software package is used to develop an optimization and management strategy, for the year 2009-2011, in maintaining a balance between forage supply and livestock need in the study area, based on dynamic monitoring data of grassland livestock husbandry and social-economic information before 2009. The purposes of the study are to maintain the balance between forage and livestock and to benefit regional social-economic development while protecting environment. In the study, quantitative changes, in livestock population structure, net increase rate, global increase rate, herd market and slaughter rates, and famers' net income in two different optimization plans (increase or decrease livestock number), are analyzed and compared under five constraints of herd structure optimization, livestock production goal, forage and livestock balance, regional social-economic development, and environmental protection. The results suggest that the strategy of reducing livestock number is a fundamental way to reach our goal. It is found that, in the period of 2009-2011, the optimal percentage of sheep, goats, cattle, horses and mules in the study area should be 68.5%, 6.4%, 25.0%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively. This, as compared with the year 2008, is an increase of 11.8% for sheep, a decrease of 1.6%, 8.6%, 1.1% and 0.4% for goats, cattle, horses and mules, respectively. Under condition of grazing throughout an entire year without supplementary feedings, the appropriate stocking rate of natural grasslands in the area is between 2.955-5.029 million su. In recent years, however, overgrazing of natural grassland has been extremely serious in the study area. For instance, it is found that the overloading rate in the study area was up to 72.9% in year 2008, over the maximum carrying capacity of natural grassland, plus supplementary feeding conditions. Grassland and livestock balance is actually a dynamic equilibrium among human being, grassland and livestock, which involves grassland, livestock, eco-environment, socio-economic, and other factors. Based on this study, grassland and livestock balance management in the study area should include: 1) appropriate adjustment of livestock number and type, improvement of breed, and optimization of livestock population structure; 2) increase of livestock supplements by means of adjustment of crop planting area and types, and increase of pasture area; 3) stabilizing areas of natural forest and grassland, and preserving eco-environment in the pastoral area; 4) improving the efficiency of livestock husbandry and market rate of herd; and 5) strictly controlling population growth and enhancing adjustment mechanism of national policy.

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梁天刚,冯琦胜,夏文韬,崔霞.甘南牧区草畜平衡优化方案与管理决策.生态学报,2011,31(4):1111~1123

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