In The population dynamics and abundance of Apodemus chevrieri, a primary pest rodent, were studied in Dafang County, Guizhou, from 1996-2008 using toe-clipping, surveys, and modelling from monthly capture rates. Apodemus chevrieri represents 62% of all farmland rats and is stable among years, ranging from 49%-79% of captured rodents. Over the last ten years, the average annual capture rate was 2.58% 1.27%. From 1996 to 1999, the population density was high and the annual average capture rate exceeded 3%. However, population density from 2001 to 2008 was low, and the annual average capture rate was less than 2%. Populations of Apodemus chevrieri showed significant variation with year, month, and season. The highest annual average capture rate of 4.99% was five times higher than the lowest annual average rate. Monthly average catch rates varied by a factor of 39, and average catch rates in the summer were 2.3 times higher than those in winter. Population changes throughout the year typically showed a single peak in June, and were essentially similar among different years. A classification standard was formulated for integration with local rodent control targets, taking into account population fluctuations and damage caused in previous years. Correlations were obtained among capture rate, reproductive parameters, sex ratio, pregnancy rate, litter size, testis growth, monthly reproductive index, and population density in the peak month of June. Using regression analysis, population levels in April can be used to forecast accurately the June population density and maximum numbers. The average match rates for value prediction and magnitude prediction were 92.84% and 100.00%, respectively. This high accuracy indicates practical and feasible forecasting for pest rodent populations and its use in control.