Model simulation is an important approach in ecological studies when actual field experiments are unfeasible. Predicting future land use under different scenarios using land use models is necessary to assist land use planning and policy making. However, many studies failed to analyze the predicting ability in temporal scales, which may have incorrect simulation results. This study investigates the temporal predicting ability of a land use model (CLUE\|S) based on kappa coefficient in the upper reach of Minjiang River. Our results showed that CLUE\|S can be used to predict up to 22 years and beyond which the prediction results may become unreliable. Our study provides a usable approach in examining temporal variations in land use models.