The CLIMEX model and pest risk quantitative analysis were used to predict the potential distribution and damage of the gall midge Obolodiplosis robiniae (Haldemann) in China. The results showed that the potential distribution is from 98.30-132.03 E and 24.23-47.41 N. The optimum establishment areas include North China, Middle China, South China and most areas of Yunnan. The suitable establishment areas include middle-south of Liaoning and Hebei, south of Shanxi and Shaanxi, southeast of Sichuan and Gansu. The semi-suitable establishment areas include most areas of Heilong-jiang, Jilin and Sichuan, a part area of Gansu and Ningxia. The other parts of China belong to non-suitable establishment areas of this pest. O. robiniae has a risk value of 2.26 in china and is ranked as a highly destructive alien species. The risk management strategy of this pest in this country was discussed.