过去20年中国耕地生长季起始期的时空变化
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国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2006AA120103和2006AA120101); 国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2007BAC03A10);中央级公益性科研院所专项资金资助项目(2008IARRP01)


Spatio-temporal variations in the starting dates of growing season in China’s cropland over the past 20 years
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    摘要:

    多时相遥感数据能够较好地描述区域尺度的植被物候和生长季节的变化特征。利用NDVI时序数据,采用非对称性高斯函数拟合方法重建平滑曲线,分别提取了我国20世纪80年代初、90年代初和21世纪初等3个时期为我国耕地第一生长季起始期,计算3个时期平均生长起始期,并分析了我国耕地第一生长季起始期的区域空间分异规律;然后,从区域和省份两个尺度分析了20世纪80年代初至90年代初和20世纪90年代初至21世纪初两个阶段我国耕地生长季起始期动态变化趋势和空间格局。结果表明,我国不同区域耕地第一生长季起始期存在十分明显的空间差异,清楚地呈现出一个从南向北逐渐推迟的空间特征;从不同区域看,在20世纪80年代初至90年代初和20世纪90年代初至21世纪初两个时期,我国耕地第一生长季起始期变化都是提前和推迟并存,不同区域变化程度不一;从不同省份看,在过去20年间,我国绝大多数省份耕地第一生长季起始期都表现为总体提前的趋势,但不同省份的起始期变化具有差异性。影响我国耕地生长季起始期变化的因素很多,如何区别气候变化等自然因子和人类活动因子对耕地生长季起始期变化的影响是一个值得深入研究的问题。

    Abstract:

    In this study, we used NDVI time-series datasets to investigate the variations in the starting dates of first growing season (SGS) in China′s cropland over the past 20 years. To do so, a smoothing algorithm based on an asymmetric Gaussian function was first performed on the NDVI time-series data to minimize the effects of anomalous values caused by atmospheric haze and cloud contamination. The SGS of cropland was then estimated from three smoothed NVDI time-series dataset for early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The resulting three datasets were overlaid together to calculate the SGS variations for the period from early 1980s to early 1990s and for the period from early 1990s to early 2000s. The results show that the SGS in China′s cropland becomes progressively later as moving northward from the South of China, in good accordance with the temperature and precipitation gradients in China. The SGS of China′s cropland varies considerably with location and investigation period, and its general trend is characterized by a significant advance in these two periods. This study supported the conclusions from previous studies that the SGS has advanced over the past two decades at the middle and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Several factors can profoundly influence cropland phenological status, such as climate change, soils and human activities. How to discriminate the impacts of biophysical forces and anthropogenic drivers on phenological events of cultivation remains a great challenge for further studies.

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吴文斌,杨鹏,唐华俊*,周清波,Shibasaki Ryosuke,张莉,唐鹏钦.过去20年中国耕地生长季起始期的时空变化.生态学报,2009,29(4):1777~1786

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