樱花花期变化特征及其与冬季气温变化的关系
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武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点资助项目(QY-Z-200701;QY-Z-200807)


Change in flowering dates of japanese cherry blossoms (P. yedoensis Mats.) in Wuhan University campus and its relationship with variability of winter
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    摘要:

    根据对武汉大学樱园日本樱花花期连续62a(1947~2008年)的记录资料和同期气象资料,通过前54a(1947~2000年)花期变化趋势及与气候因子相关性的分析,寻找关键因子和关键期,建立了花期-气候因子的线性和非线性关系模式,为气候变化提供有力证据,并对后8a(2001~2008年)花期进行了预报检验。结果表明:(1)54a来,日本樱花始花日期显著提前,每10a提前2.17d,共提前11.72d;落花期略有推迟, 每10a推迟0.34d,共推迟1.83d;开花期间持续天数显著增加,每10a增加2.50d,共增加13.55d,这些指标的年际变幅后期明显增大;(2)上年12月到当年3月各月平均气温与始花期均呈负相关,其中2月份、冬季平均气温达极显著,是始花期显著提前的主要原因,2月份、冬季平均气温每升高1℃,始花期分别提前1.66d和286d;(3)利用2月份、冬季平均气温建立了始花期的(非)线性关系模式,对后8a的始花期进行了预报试验和检验,平均误差3d左右,尤其是对2004、2007年的异常早花情况,非线性模式有较好模拟效果。

    Abstract:

    Based on a dataset of flowering dates of Japanese Cherry Blossoms (P. yedoensis Mats.) recorded continuously in the last 62 years in Wuhan University Campus and climatic data in the same period, the authors analyze the change in first-flowering and flower fading dates and its correlation with the climatic factors, and establish the statistical models of first-flowering dates with the wintertime temperature. The analysis could not only provide a further evidence for the local climate change, but also formulate a tool for predicting the flowering dates. The results show that: (1) In the time period 1947-2000, the first-flowering dates of Japan Cherry Blossoms advance significantly at a rate of 2.17d per decade, with an overall trend of 11.7d in the 54 years, and the fading dates postpone a little with a linear trend of about 1.83d for the same period. This makes the duration of florescence increases by 13.55d. However, the annual variability of these indices increases obviously at later stage of the period. (2) First-flowering dates have a negative correlation with average temperature of months from December to March, and the negative correlations with average temperature of February and wintertime (December to February) are statistically significant. The wintertime temperature is increasing significantly in recent years, and this is the main reason for the obvious advancement of the first-flowering dates of Japanese Cherry Blossoms. A 1℃ increase in average temperature of February and wintertime will make the first-flowering dates advance by 1.66d and 2.86d respectively. (3) A linear and nonlinear statistical model of the first-flowering dates are built up with the average temperature of February and wintertime, and it has been tested against the 2001-2008 observations, with the mean error being about three days. The nonlinear model has a good performance especially for the years of 2004 and 2007 when the abnormally earlier first-flowering phenomenon occurs.

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陈正洪,肖玫,陈璇.樱花花期变化特征及其与冬季气温变化的关系.生态学报,2008,28(11):5209~5217

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