区域生态安全预警指数——以辽河流域为例
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573018);国家教育部科技司重点资助项目(105054)


Research on Region ecological security early warning index: a case of Liaohe River watershed
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    摘要:

    生态安全不仅体现在某个时间段的状态上,还与安全隐患密切相关,区域生态安全是安全状态、隐患因素、演变趋势、时间、空间以及安全主体的函数。只有将其状态和隐患结合起来研究,才能科学而正确地对生态安全未来演变趋势做出判断,实现生态安全危险状态的预警。文章以辽河流域为例提出预警指数测算方法:①确立生态安全状态——隐患综合评价指标体系。②采用数学方法计算安全状态指数。③采用安全评价方法计算隐患指数。④根据多目标决策准则,采用状态指数和和隐患指数的并合方法计算预警评价的结果指数。评价结果与实地考察情况基本一致,可以为决策部门提供生态安全预警依据。

    Abstract:

    Eco-security as a hot research area in Resource and Environment Science, not only assessments secure sate, but also relates to potential danger factors. It is a function of secure state, potential danger, evolving trend, time, space and object. Only integrating secure state with danger, secure trend can be judged accurately, and early warning can be realized. A case study of Liaohe River has developed a method of eco-security warning in this paper. The method includes 4 steps: ①Establishing eco-security state—danger evaluation indicator system. ②Evaluating secure state index by fuzzy membership degree. ③Assessing potential danger index by accident analyzing method of Graham. ④Calculating early warning index by multi-objective decision-making rule. The results are consistent with autoptical work. The method is verified that we can better know the status of warning.

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王耕,吴伟.区域生态安全预警指数——以辽河流域为例.生态学报,2008,28(8):3535~3542

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