上升性理论在经济系统中的应用——以甘肃省为例
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F062.2

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The ascendency formula and its application in economic systems: take Gansu Province as a case study
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    摘要:

    如何定量地判断增长与发展之间的关系,是生态学、经济学及可持续发展相关学科讨论的一个重要问题。Ulanowicz从生态系统的角度出发,提出用上升性这个宏观指标对增长与发展进行定量描述。以甘肃省为例讨论了上升性理论在经济系统中的应用。研究结果表明,在1987~1995年甘肃省系统总吞吐量(实物型)年均增加6.30%,上升性(A)增加近2倍,但是平均相互信息却从0.460比特降到0.336比特,这表明在这8a间甘肃省处于不可持续的发展状况。在1995~2002年,甘肃省系统总吞吐量(实物型)仍不断增加,但年均增加率从1987~1995年的630%降到2.13%,上升性(A)增加了2倍多,平均相互信息从0.336比特增加到0.499比特,这表明在这7a间甘肃省朝着可持续的方向发展。根据Ulanowicz对系统进化阶段的划分,甘肃省在1987~2002年处于增长阶段即处于进化的初级阶段。对研究结果的分析表明,要实现甘肃省的可持续发展,需提高资源的利用效率,实现资源的循环利用,并加强资源在部门之间的流通性及分配的公平性。

    Abstract:

    The relationship between growth and development has been a hot topic in ecology, economics and some relative disciplines for nearly a century and an half. Flow networks are convenient representation of complex material and information transactions. Based on flow network analysis, Ulanowicz treated the average mutual information as a cardinal attribute of a developing network and developed the ascendency formula, which offers a comprehensive way of quantitatively analyzing the relationship between growth and development. A basic result is that C, “the development capacity”, serves as an upper bound on ascendency where C=E×H, H is system diversity and E is total system throughput. We introduce the concept here and outline the cash flows among six fundamental sector of the Gansu province economy: (1) agriculture; (2) industry; (3) construction; (4) transportation, post and telecommunication; (5) commerce and catering trade; (6) other services. To investigate the development status of Gansu province, we use time-series data from 1987 to 2002 to quantify economic system’s performance according to Ulanowicz’s ascendency formula. The results show that the annual total system throughput(material representation) rises from 8510.06×104 tons of SCE in 1987 to 12800.86 104 tons of SCE in 1995. The system ascendency in 1995 is thrice that of 1987, but the average mutual information decreases from 0.460 bits in 1987 to 0.336 bits in 1995. The increase of system ascendency may be attributed to two factors: the increase of system throughput (material representation) and the decrease of average mutual information. The results show that Gansu′s economic system is on an unsustainable road during 1987-1995. The system ascendency also increases twice times from 1995 to 2002. The corresponding total system throughput (material representation) is still arising from 1995 to 2002, but the year increasing rate dropped from 6.30% during 1987-1995 to 2.13% during 1995-2002, but that , the system ascendency gradually increases during this period, it rises from 0.336 bits in 1995 to 0.449 bits in 2002. The results suggest that Gansu′s economy is moving toward the sustainable road during 1995-2002. These analysis results can be taken as evidence to classify the system evolutionary stage. According to Ulanowicz′s evolutionary mode, Gansu′s economy is still in the first stage, that is, growth stage. And the increase of ascendency from 1995 to 2002 demonstrates that Gansu′s economy have begun its transition from the young growth economy to the mature growth economy, that is to say, approximate to development stage. A sustainable development stage relies on increasing development capacity or average mutual information with decreasing or stable throughput (material representation). Development capacity and diversity provide guides to determine whether a country or district′s development is sustainable. According to our analysis of Gansu over period of 1987-2002, Gansu′s economy is not sustainable as evidenced by increasing system throughput during 1987-1995, but there have evidences show that it is moving toward sustainable road as evidenced by improvement of average mutual information from 1995 to 2002. Considering the actual situation of Gansu Province, the more sustainable approach is to increase our own resources utilization efficiency, enhance information communication among industries. Such countermeasures can increase average mutual information, and can improve Gansu′s development capacity.

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黄茄莉,徐中民.上升性理论在经济系统中的应用——以甘肃省为例.生态学报,2007,27(11):4785~4792

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