郑州植物物候对气候变化的响应
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Q948

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Responses of phenology to climate change in Zhengzhou area
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    摘要:

    利用统计和突变分析方法,对郑州气候(1956~2003年)和4种乔木物候(1986~2003年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了植物物候期与平均温度、日照的相关性以及对温度变化的响应趋势。分析发现:(1)郑州近50a来在冬、春季升温现象明显;日照在夏季下降最为显著,冬季其次,但在2~4月份历年呈弱上升趋势。(2)物候期变化趋势表现在展叶、开花、果熟期(除楝树外)呈提前趋势,落叶期略有推迟,绿叶期延长,特别是在20世纪90年代中后期,春季物候期(除垂柳外)提前10d左右。(3)平均温度是影响物候期最为显著的气候因子,温度每升高1℃,春季物候平均提前6d左右,绿叶期延长9.5~18.6d;物候期突变一般发生在温度突变之后。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析和掌握气候和物候变化规律,了解其对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供一些理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Statistic and abrupt analysis methods are applied to investigate tendencies of climate change during 1956-2003 and phenology of four kinds of trees in 1986-2003 , as well as the correlations with mean temperature and sunshine duration, and afterwards, are discussed the tendencies of the responses of phenological events to temperature change, together with their differences in abrupt change in tendencies and linkage. Results show that (1) 1956-2003 temperature in the study area has risen significantly in spring and winter, in contrast to the summer equivalent that has dropped somewhat; sunshine duration has declined most appreciably in summer, next being that in winter, as opposed to the weak rise occurring from February to April during this period; (2) the occurrence of phenological events (Leaf spreading and Flowering) is advanced markedly and so is the Fruit ripening except Melia azedarach, as opposed to a little delay of leaf fall time but the leaf growing stage is prolonged and particularly from the mid 1990s, spring events (except Salix babylonica L.) are about 10 days in advance and leaf greening is kept longer some 15 days; (3) average temperature is a climate factor greatly affecting the phenology but sunshine duration plays a minor role except during the autumn when leaves begin falling. On a phenological basis, it is found that a about 6-day interval in advance that leads to the extension of green leaves by 95-18.6 days occurs for every 1℃ rise in spring. Generally, the sudden change in phenology appears after that in temperature, and the curve after abrupt point shows temperature rise for spring phenological events happening in advance and longer green-leaf stage. As a result, the phenological response to climate change is remarkable and through study to understand the relations between climate and phenology, it is likely to provide some theoretical basis for agricultural practice and the monitoring and assessment of ecological environment.

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柳晶,郑有飞,赵国强,陈怀亮.郑州植物物候对气候变化的响应.生态学报,2007,27(4):1471~1479

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