气候变化条件下东北森林主要建群种的空间分布
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Q948.1

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The spatial distribution of constructive species of Northeast forest under the climate changing
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    摘要:

    全球气候模型HADCM2SUL和CGCM1分别预测100a后全球年均温增加3.7℃和5.2℃,年降水增加30.7%和25.1%。为了研究东北森林对这两种预测方案的反应,使用logistic回归模型分析了东北森林8个建群种与11种环境因子之间的相关关系。结果表明,除了山杨和蒙古栎之外,年均温是决定其它树种存在与否的重要因子。采用模型结果预测现行气候条件下8个树种的分布并与其现实分布比较,发现针叶树种的总正确率、敏感度、指定度和错误肯定率均比阔叶树种的要高,而错误否定率比后者低,说明模型对针叶树种的拟合程度要优于对阔叶树种的拟合程度。在此基础上,预测了8个树种在两种气候变化方案下100a后的分布图。结果表明,在HADCM2SUL方案下,兴安落叶松、白桦、冷杉和云杉的覆盖率分别下降91.2%、67.4%、11.9%、10%;长白落叶松、红松和蒙古栎的覆盖率分别增长87.8%、54.6%、31.3%;在CGCM1方案下,兴安落叶松、白桦、云杉、冷杉和红松的覆盖率分别下降99.2%、89.9%、85.9%、83.2%、4.9%;长白落叶松、蒙古栎的覆盖率分别增长93.3%、27.5%;山杨在这两种方案下数量不变。

    Abstract:

    Global Climate Models, HADCM2SUL and CGCM1 predicted that global annual average temperature will rise 3.7℃ and 5.2℃, annual precipitation will rise 30.7% and 25.1%, respectively in the next 100 years. To explore the response of Northeastern forests to the two climate warming scenarios, Logistic regression was developed to analyze the relationship between eight constructive species of northeast forest (Larix gmelinii, Pinus koraiensis, Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepis, Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis, Quercus mongolica, Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana) and 11 environmental variables (annual average temperature, annual precipitation, altitude, slope, aspect, soil clay, soil silty, soil sand, soil depth, soil organization material, soil total nitrogen). The logistic regression models established based on the current species distribution and the associated environment variables. The results showed that annual average temperature was the most important factor determining the occurrence of all species except for Quercus mongolica and Populus davidiana. Comparing the predicted species distributions with the actual species distributions, we found that model correctness, sensitivity, specificity and false positive rate of conifer species were greater than those of the broadleaf species, and the false negative rates of conifer species were less than those of the broadleaf species. The results showed that the goodness of fit of conifer species were greater than those of the broadleaf species. The predicted distributions of the eight species under the two global warming scenarios were derived on the logistic regression models. The result showed that under the HADCM1SUL scenario, the coverage of Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, Abies nephrolepi, Picea jezoensis decreased 91.2%, 67.4%, 11.9% and 10%, respectively. The coverage of Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis, Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica increased 87.8%, 54.6% and 31.3%, respectively. Under the CGCM1 scenario, the coverage of Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepi and Pinus koraiensis decreased 99.2%, 89.9%, 85.9%, 83.2% and 4.9%, respectively; the coverage of Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis and Quercus mongolica increased 93.3% and 27.5%, respectively. The Populus davidiana did not change under two scenarios.

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冷文芳,贺红士,布仁仓,胡远满.气候变化条件下东北森林主要建群种的空间分布.生态学报,2006,26(12):4257~4266

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