Abstract:Global Climate Models, HADCM2SUL and CGCM1 predicted that global annual average temperature will rise 3.7℃ and 5.2℃, annual precipitation will rise 30.7% and 25.1%, respectively in the next 100 years. To explore the response of Northeastern forests to the two climate warming scenarios, Logistic regression was developed to analyze the relationship between eight constructive species of northeast forest (Larix gmelinii, Pinus koraiensis, Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepis, Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis, Quercus mongolica, Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana) and 11 environmental variables (annual average temperature, annual precipitation, altitude, slope, aspect, soil clay, soil silty, soil sand, soil depth, soil organization material, soil total nitrogen). The logistic regression models established based on the current species distribution and the associated environment variables. The results showed that annual average temperature was the most important factor determining the occurrence of all species except for Quercus mongolica and Populus davidiana. Comparing the predicted species distributions with the actual species distributions, we found that model correctness, sensitivity, specificity and false positive rate of conifer species were greater than those of the broadleaf species, and the false negative rates of conifer species were less than those of the broadleaf species. The results showed that the goodness of fit of conifer species were greater than those of the broadleaf species. The predicted distributions of the eight species under the two global warming scenarios were derived on the logistic regression models. The result showed that under the HADCM1SUL scenario, the coverage of Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, Abies nephrolepi, Picea jezoensis decreased 91.2%, 67.4%, 11.9% and 10%, respectively. The coverage of Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis, Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica increased 87.8%, 54.6% and 31.3%, respectively. Under the CGCM1 scenario, the coverage of Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepi and Pinus koraiensis decreased 99.2%, 89.9%, 85.9%, 83.2% and 4.9%, respectively; the coverage of Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis and Quercus mongolica increased 93.3% and 27.5%, respectively. The Populus davidiana did not change under two scenarios.