国家公园生态旅游项目特许经营权价值评估研究
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福建农林大学经济与管理学院

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国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(72241410);福建省省级财政林业专项资金 (闽财指[2020]601号)


Research on the Evaluation of Concession Value of National Park Ecotourism Projects --Taking Wuyi Mountain as an example
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Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University

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    摘要:

    特许经营是国家公园生态产品价值实现的重要途径。在分析武夷山国家公园生态旅游项目特许经营权关系的基础上,运用混合实物期权法构建出特许经营权的期权定价模型,通过基准价值和期权价值的修正,估算出生态旅游项目特许经营权的价值。结果表明:(1)旅行费用法、条件价值法和选择实验法的对比分析有利于特许经营权基准价值的确定,选择实验法的结果可理解为在公允条件下国家公园生态旅游活动的基础价值;(2)武夷山国家公园生态旅游项目特许经营权基准价值为6.42亿元,期权价值为2.64亿元,净现值为8.98亿元,特许经营权总价值为11.62亿元;(3)与传统收益法比较,混合实物期权评估方法有利于体现国家公园生态旅游项目未来收益风险与价值之间的关系,可为特许经营权的价值估算和科学管理提供新的参考思路。

    Abstract:

    Concessions are an important way to realize the value of ecological products in national parks. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the concessions of the ecotourism project in Wuyishan National Park, the option pricing model of the concessions is constructed by applying the hybrid real option method, and the value of the concessions of the ecotourism project is estimated through the correction of the benchmark value and the option value. The results show that (1) the comparative analysis of travel cost method, conditional value method and option experiment method is beneficial to the determination of the benchmark value of the concession, and the results of the option experiment method can be interpreted as the base value of the ecotourism activities in the national park under fair conditions; (2) the benchmark value of the concession of the ecotourism project in Wuyishan National Park is 642 million yuan, the option value is 264 million yuan, the net present value is 898 million yuan, and the total value of the concession is 1.162 billion yuan; (3) compared with the traditional income method, the hybrid real option valuation method is conducive to reflecting the relationship between the future income risk and value of the national park ecotourism project, and can provide a new reference idea for the value estimation and scientific management of the concession.

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