Abstract:Due to global climate change, the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems in Eurasia show a series of spatiotemporal shifts that directly influence the ecological environment in the countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) area. This research aims to analyze the spatiotemporal shift trends of vegetation ecosystems under climate change in Eurasia and obtain new data and theoretical support for BRI projects. The Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) model has been improved upon and the spatiotemporal shift model of the mean center was developed to quantitatively reveal the spatiotemporal shift trends of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems in Eurasia. Based on the climatic observation data of Eurasia during the period from 1981 to 2010 and the climatic scenarios data during the period from 2011 to 2100 of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 released by CMIP5, the spatiotemporal shift trends of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems were obtained. The results show that most mean centers in vegetation ecosystems are distributed in the central and south parts of Eurasia. The mean centers in subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest, subtropical thorn woodland, subtropical wet forest, cool temperate wet forest, cold temperate moist forest, cool temperate moist forest, subtropical moist forest, warm temperate dry forest, polar/nival area, and subpolar/alpine moist tundra would shift more than any other mean centers in vegetation ecosystems under the three scenarios in Eurasia. The mean centers in vegetation ecosystems under the RCP8.5 scenario would shift more than the other two scenarios in Eurasia. Climate change would greatly alter the distribution pattern of vegetation ecosystems and cause most of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems to shift to the northern region of Eurasia from 2011 to 2100 under the three scenarios.