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和克俭,黄晓霞,丁佼,刘琦,江源.基于GWR模型的东江水质空间分异与水生态功能分区验证.生态学报,2019,39(15):5483~5493 本文二维码信息
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基于GWR模型的东江水质空间分异与水生态功能分区验证
Spatial variations in water quality and their correspondence with ecoregions of the Dongjiang River basin using geographically weighted regression (GWR)
投稿时间:2018-07-14  修订日期:2019-03-20
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201807141530
关键词河流水质  流域特征  地理加权回归分析(GWR)  水生态功能分区  东江
Key Wordsstream water quality  watershed characteristics  aquatic ecoregion  geographically weighted regression model  Dongjiang River basin
基金项目国家水体污染控制与治理重大科技专项(2017ZX07301-001-03)
作者单位E-mail
和克俭 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院, 昆明 650091  
黄晓霞 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院, 昆明 650091 huangxx@ynu.edu.cn 
丁佼 云南省水利厅, 昆明 650021  
刘琦 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 北京 100875  
江源 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 北京 100875  
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摘要:
流域水生态功能分区研究是我国正在开展的一项重要工作,如何验证分区结果的合理性,是当前亟待解决的问题。采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型评估流域特征对东江水质的影响,验证水质及流域影响空间差异是否与一二级水生态功能分区结果吻合,并对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘(OLS)模型性能,讨论了GWR在分区验证方面的应用价值及不足。结果显示:1)水质指标以及GWR模型局部解释率(Local R2)均在一二级水生态功能分区间存在显著差异;2)相比OLS模型,GWR模型校正R2更高,残差空间自相关指数Moran's I更低。研究表明东江水生态功能分区结果能合理反映水陆耦合关系,有效解释水质空间差异。此外建议选择总氮(TN)而非溶解氧(DO)和总磷(TP)作为分区验证指标。GWR模型在分区结果验证中具有广泛应用前景。降低数据空间自相关影响及改善距离测度方法是未来GWR模型研究的难点问题。
Abstract:
Water ecological function zoning in a watershed is an important task to perform in our country. How to validate the rationality of the zoning results has become an urgent problem to solve. In the study, we used the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) to evaluate the impact of watershed characteristics on water quality in the Dongjiang River. Our aims were to verify whether the spatial differences in impacts of watershed characteristics on water quality accorded with the results of primary and secondary water ecological function zoning, and to explore the possibility and limitation of the GWR model to validate the rationality of the zoning results according to a comparison of the results of the GWR model with the ordinary least squares (OLS) model. The results showed that: (1) Water quality indexes and Local R2 showed significant differences among the primary and secondary water ecological function zones, respectively. (2) Compared with the OLS model, there was a higher adjusted R2 and lower Moran's I in the GWR model. These findings indicated that the results of water ecological function zoning could reflect the relationship between land and streams and the spatial differences in water quality in the Dongjiang River. In addition, the total nitrogen (TN) was found to better verify the zoning results than the dissolved oxygen (DO) and the total phosphorus (TP). The GWR model has wide application prospects in verifying zoning results, but a difficult problem faced by research into GWR models is reducing the spatial autocorrelation and improve the distance measure in the future.
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