Land ecological security assessment can guide rational land use efficiently and coordinate the contradiction between ecological protection and regional economic development. Supported by the kernel density estimation method and Kriging spatial interpolation, the index system of land ecological security evaluation based on catastrophe progression method has been constructed, and the spatial variation coefficient method and grey prediction model have been used to analyze the land ecological security in Xinjiang. The results indicated that:(1) the overall level of land ecological security in Xinjiang has continuously improved. The land ecological security index increased from 0.76 in 2004 to 0.94 in 2017; the development trend of "unsafe→less safe→critical safety→safer" is apparent at the ecological security level; (2) the disequilibrium of land ecological security has been improved and spatial differences have been reduced in all counties and cities of Xinjiang. The spatial variation coefficient of land ecological security in Xinjiang increased from 0.51 in 2004 to 0.84 in 2017. There has been a sustained upward trend, with the fastest increase of 0.29 between 2009 and 2014; (3) the population of the research area increased by 27.59%, whereas the area of unused land and grassland decreased by 7.51‰ and 9.45‰, respectively. The uneven distribution of natural resources, extensive occupation of unused land and grassland for socio-economic development, and sharp increase in regional population may be the main problems of land ecological security in Xinjiang; (4) through the gray model prediction, the land ecological security of Xinjiang will be further improved in 2020, and the spatial difference of land ecological security will be further reduced. Compared with the scenario in 2005, the spatial variation coefficient will increase to 0.85 in 2020; the safety and critical safety zones will be increased by 2.06% and 11.24%, respectively; and the safer, less safe and unsafe zones will be reduced by 2.98%, 9.16%, and 1.15%, respectively.