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刘文茹,陈国庆,曲春红,居辉,刘勤.RCP情景下长江中下游麦稻二熟制气候生产潜力变化特征研究.生态学报,2018,38(1):156~166 本文二维码信息
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RCP情景下长江中下游麦稻二熟制气候生产潜力变化特征研究
Variations in potential climatic productivity of wheat and rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under RCP scenarios
投稿时间:2016-11-12  
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201611202362
关键词气候生产潜力  稻麦轮作  长江中下游地区  影响因素  时空变化特征
Key Wordsclimatic potential productivity  rice-wheat rotation  middle and lower Yangtze River  influencing factor  variation characteristics
基金项目农业部法制建设与政策调研项目;中国农业科学院科技创新工程;国家自然科学基金项目(41401510)
作者单位E-mail
刘文茹 山东农业大学农学院, 泰安 271018  
陈国庆 山东农业大学农学院, 泰安 271018  
曲春红 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所, 北京 100081 quchunhong@caas.cn 
居辉 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081  
刘勤 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081  
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摘要:
基于BCC_CSM 1.1全球气候模式RCP气候情景输出的2021-2050年和基准年(1961-1990)逐日气候资料,采用机制法预估长江中下游地区稻麦气候生产潜力,并利用Theil-Sen斜率估计、MK检验和ArcGIS空间分析等方法对稻麦气候生产潜力的年际变化趋势和空间分布特征进行分析,旨在探明影响稻麦气候生产潜力变化的主要气候因子,对评价未来的作物潜在生产能力和制定气候变化的适应性策略具有重要意义。结果表明:基准气候时段下(1961-1990年),长江中下游地区稻麦气候生产潜力分别介于10000-12000 kg/hm2和8000-10500 kg/hm2之间,水稻气候生产潜力总体呈现上升趋势而小麦呈现下降趋势。水稻气候生产潜力在空间上表现为自研究区域中部向南北逐渐增加,冬小麦则呈现北高南低的分布特征;未来两种气候情景下(RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5),稻麦气候生产潜力总体均呈现显著线性增加趋势,表现为RCP 8.5情景大于RCP 4.5。水稻气候生产潜力的增加速率较冬小麦大两倍左右,且年际波动较小,稳定性强。RCP 4.5气候情景下,研究区域内稻麦气候生产潜力总体呈现明显的区域分异,与基准年相比分别增加了3500-5000 kg/hm2和5000-6500 kg/hm2。东部沿海地区、两湖平原地区和江西为稻麦气候生产潜力高值区域。冬小麦气候生产潜力与基准时段相反呈现出由南向北递减趋势,南昌和长江三角洲部分地区呈现出显著增加趋势( > 80 kg hm-2 a-1),水稻则表现为自中西部向东南部沿海逐渐增加。在RCP 8.5情景下,冬小麦气候生产潜力较基准年增加了4000-6000 kg/hm2;从地域分布特征看,呈现自东向西逐渐减少的趋势,长江三角洲、南阳盆地和两湖平原为高值区,庐山周边区域(近鄱湖阳湖)变化率高达80 kg hm-2 a-1P < 0.05)。水稻气候生产潜力空间分布与基准年相似,仅较基准年增加1000 kg/hm2左右,两湖平原和庐山周边地区和江苏中部大于11000 kg/hm2,较基准年高值区面积有所扩大。长江中下游地区稻麦气候生产潜力受气候变化和地理位置的双重影响。作物生育期内≥ 10℃积温为主导因子,其次为太阳总辐射,而降水量的影响较小。平原地区作物气候生产潜力较同一纬度地区大。区域农业气候资源在保证足够数量的同时相互协调更是获得高气候生产潜力重要条件。
Abstract:
Based on daily meteorological data under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios (2021-2050) and baseline climatic conditions (1961-1990) extracted from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1-1 (BCC_CSM1), global climate patterns for the middle and lower Yangtze River and potential climatic productivity of winter wheat and rice were estimated using the attenuation method. The spatial and temporal characteristics of potential climatic productivity over the next 30 years were estimated using the Theil-Sen's slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The sequential driving factors of the dynamics of potential climatic productivity were determined. The results showed that the estimated potential climatic productivity of winter wheat was 10000-12000 kg/hm2, whereas that of rice was 8000-10500 kg/hm2. The potential productivity of wheat tended to increase from the central to the southern areas, whereas the potential productivity of rice exhibited the opposite tendency, decreasing from north to south during the baseline period. The climatic production potential of winter wheat and rice increased significantly, with greater annual increases and less fluctuations for rice than for winter wheat under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, the potential climatic productivity of rice and winter wheat exhibited strong regional characteristics, increasing by 3500-5000 kg/hm2 and 5000-6050 kg/hm2, respectively, from those under the baseline scenario. With high values in the Two-lake plains and Jiangxi Province, and significantly increasing tendencies for Nanchang of ≥ 80 kg hm-2 a-1, the potential climatic productivity of winter wheat slightly decreased from south to north. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the overall potential climatic productivity of rice and winter wheat exhibited significantly increasing amplitudes of 4000-6000 kg/hm2 and 11000 kg/hm2, respectively, from those under the baseline scenario. The potential climatic productivity of winter wheat tended to decrease gradually from east to west in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The highest values were predicted in the Yangtze River delta, Nan yang basin, and Two-lake plains, and an increment of over 80 kg/hm2 was predicted in the area surrounding Mount Lu (P < 0.05). Potential climatic productivity was affected by both agricultural meteorological elements and geographical location. The potential climatic productivity of crops in the plains was greater than that in other areas at the same latitude. During the growth period, accumulated temperature was the most important factor affecting plant growth, followed by solar radiation. Accordingly, sufficient and harmonious climatic resources are thought to be the essential conditions for obtaining high potential climatic productivity.
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