近20年来东北三省春玉米物候期变化趋势及其对温度的时空响应
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农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,农业部农业信息技术重点实验室

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国家自然科学基金项目(40930101,41201184);农业部"948"计划项目(2011-G6)


Trends of spring maize phenophases and spatio-temporal responses to temperature in three provinces of Northeast China during the past 20 years
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Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture,,,,,,,,

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    摘要:

    利用1990至2009期间的东北三省46个农业气象台站的观测记录,通过计算玉米出苗期、成熟期和生育期长度等物候期特征的年变化率(θ),分析了气候变化背景下东北三省玉米物候期对生长季气温条件变化的响应特征。结果表明:(1)研究期间,东北三省大部分地区5月和9月均温都出现了上升趋势,温度生长期天数持续增加;(2)在气候增温背景下,玉米主要物候期均出现了不同程度的变化与响应,其中出苗期表现为提前态势(0.02< θ < 0.15 d/a)、成熟期推迟(0.18< θ < 0.38 d/a)和生育期长度增长(0.22< θ < 0.44 d/a)的趋势,生育期长度的增加反映了为了充分利用增温带来的适宜发育期,作物熟型从中早熟型调整为中晚熟型的适应过程;(3)由于种植区的空间差异,物候期的响应和变化亦体现出区域差异,其中松嫩平原北部、吉林省中东部和辽宁省中部的响应关系较为明显。总体上,东北三省生长季气温条件变化使作物生长期内温度适宜程度偏好,有利于早种晚收、生育期长的玉米品种。

    Abstract:

    Investigating the historical processes behind crop phenology is essential for understanding crop response and adaption for climate change. Based on the 1990-2009 crop phenophase records from 46 agricultural meteorological stations in three provinces of northeast China, the maize phenophases (including the stages of seeding, maturity and length of the growth period) were extracted. The related annual slope change rates (θ) were then calculated and used to analyze the responses to temperature changes in the maize growing seasons of Northeast China during 1990-2009. The results showed that (1) over the past 20 years, positive trends of average temperature in May (T5) and September (T9), as well as an extended temperature-allowing period, were found in most areas of the three provinces. (2) With this background, various changes and responses had occurred in maize phenophases. Temporal trends of advanced seeding stage (0.02< θ < 0.15 d/a), postponed harvesting stage (0.18< θ < 0.38 d/a) and extended length of the growth period (0.22< θ < 0.44 d/a) were observed. It can be inferred the adaptive action by adjusting the early/middle maturing types to middle/late maturing types has been implemented to fully utilize the prolonged growth period under climate warming. (3) In response to the rising trend of T5, advancing of the maize seedling stage occurred, which was most significant in the north of Songnen Plain, the middle and the east of Jilin and the middle of Liaoning. Corresponding to the rising trend of T9, the maize maturity stage showed a postponement trend, which was more significant in the middle and east of Jilin. In response to the extending trend of the temperature-allowing period, the maize growth period showed an overall significant extending trend. Generally, the temperature changes during the crop growth period in Northeast China resulted in better temperature conditions for maize growth-especially for early-planting, late-harvesting varieties with a longer growth period. This may benefit future maize production, especially in northern areas. The findings provided implications for improving maize responses and adaptation studies, for researchers wishing to breed higher yielding maize cultivars and for enabling maize production to cope with ongoing climate change.

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李正国,杨鹏,唐华俊,吴文斌,陈仲新,刘佳,张莉,谭杰扬,唐鹏钦.近20年来东北三省春玉米物候期变化趋势及其对温度的时空响应.生态学报,2013,33(18):5818~5827

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